The Prisoner of Zenda Election II

Can Former President Trump 'Make Felonies Great Again'? || Peter Zeihan

President Trump is a man of convictions -- 36 of them.

I don't expect "the Donald" to realize this, but the way he wins is by making sure the Democrats lose. Should his poll numbers crater, he has a good reason to leave the race and pick a replacement. In the meantime, he should take the high road and pledge to pardon "the Big Guy" for those corrupt dealings with Ukraine and China. Besides, it's like the Special Prosecutor said, the current occupant of the Oval Office is too frail for jail.

The Democrats spent 2020 convincing half of the nation that our justice system is unfair and all the years since convincing the other half of the same (that being the half that supported Federal Law Enforcement). This verdict can be seen as confirmation. And who caused the cratering of faith in our system of justice? The Democrat Party.

And remember, they tried to frame Trump as a spy and a traitor in 2016 (and seventeen and eighteen) and he got 10 million more votes in 2020. So-o-o.

The Prisoner of Zenda Election

Sino-US Realestate Relations

Should We Worry About Chinese Land Purchases in the US? || Peter Zeihan

For a while I've thought the hype about China overtaking the US was overwrought because it's the over-rot in the US we should worry about. In fact, the ones who wanted to promote the rot were the ones promoting China.

There was a year during the Obama administration when DC came up with 90,000 pages of new regulations -- that's what they mean by an increase in productivity. Does this add to inflation? No. Because it all makes things better. When you factor in the qualitative improvements this quantitative improvement has brought about, there is no inflation (see car prices). Since Sputnik, the Federal government has injected itself (and our money) into the education of our children, and achievement scores have gone way down. But when you factor in that the young folks are much better people these days (ask'em), well, it's all good. And now that the Federal Government is in charge of the climate, Wall Street will only be flooded with cash.

In the 1980s I read that the USSR's rate of capital investment was growing yearly and way higher than in the USA, and I thought "Uh-oh for us." Then I read that all that capital investment was producing a negative return -- that they weren't just running on a treadmill to get ahead, but running on a treadmill and falling behind -- and I thought "Uh-oh for them." As regards Communist China, we've transitioned into the "Uh-Oh for them" stage but we are still in the "Uh-oh for US."

The Chinese leadership blamed political reform in the USSR for the collapse of the communist regime and vowed not to make that mistake. This is like blaming the cancer on the desperate remedies used to slow its spread. Now they've tossed that politically convenient "two systems" pledge (allowing limited political and economic freedom) onto the Ashheap of Chinese History. What desperate measures will Xi Jinping use to avoid that same fate?

How Long Was Rome on the Rhine?

Europe Goes Nuclear: Is America Leaving NATO? || Peter Zeihan

While hitchhiking through West Germany in 1971, a young German picked me up and wanted the US to end its occupation -- he might have meant "of Native American land" but, since the US had 200,000 troops staring down the Red Army at the Fulda gap, I figured he was talking about Germany. I told him to look at a map of the USA: everyone outside of NYC and DC would easily agree to leave -- if it was about occupation rather than preventing the next horrendous war.

I mentioned that "The Red Army" was a two-day drive -- by armored division -- from the Rhine. If the West Germans didn't want tank tracks down their backs, they'd have to replace those 200,000 American "occupiers" (and the accompanying security guarantee) with half a million Germans in jackboots. Then the rest of Europe would build out their militaries, not because they feared Russia but because they feared Germany. (I'd made some Dutch friends and they told me that they were so fond of Germany they loved having two of them.)

President Trump asked the Germans to stop starving their military while gobbling up Russian energy and they laughed at him (literally, there's video) -- that's some costly laughter. He provided Ukraine with the stingers and Javelins that stalled Putin's drive on Kyiv. If I remember correctly, the Biden administration paused "lethal" aid (for a lengthy and thorough process of review) when assuming power. That's like ringing the dinner bell for someone like Putin. I swear, Washington DC is so overrun with self-centered, self-dealing fools that Donald Trump looks good.  Ditto the Capital of Europe -- is it really Defacto Brussels or just Defacto?

At some point, the American military guarantee for Europe will end. Since the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior, it's wise to ask: How will Europeans prevent the internecine slaughters that lay ahead? And at what point will the US get dragged in?

Them Spears need Warheads

California Finds a Use for New Mexico

The SunZia Wind Farm: How To Do Greentech Well || Peter Zeihan

Time was I would ask, "Do you want windmills along every ridgeline in your area with high power lines running through your backyard that will ship the energy to some far-off metropolis?"  Answer: "No, but if it's somebody else's neighborhood and the power comes to my city, I'm all for it."

That's the kind of conversation I had about green tech back when I bothered talking about green tech.  After Biden won in 2021, a friend asked me about the move to Electric Vehicles. I commented that we should not underestimate DC's ability to bankrupt an entire industry and then botch the creation of the touted replacement. The old "Lemon Laws" were aimed at preventing the sale of cars that are lemons to unsuspecting consumers. The new Lemon Laws are about making every car you can buy a lemon, which you will suspect and will later be proven right -- but hey, you might get a tax credit.

So we now learn New Mexico is being gifted a vast array of windmills and accompanying power lines that will keep the lights on in Los Angeles. Yay for L.A! Eleven Billion dollars magically appeared to finance this one small step on the long journey to save the planet. Given the history of these sorts of projects, one must ask: will they be coming back for more money or a lot more money? Will it cost the traditional three times the estimate or the new traditional six times the estimate? I know, I know, my skepticism is misplaced.

Elon Musk might actually make this stuff work in a practical and self-sustaining manner.  And who do they hate? Elon Musk. You see, if you give a person fish that you have taken from another person at gunpoint, he's going to need you to keep giving him fish and work to keep you in power. If the person can get his own fish, well, it's time to take fish from him at gunpoint and give it to someone who will help you stay in power. Simple.

It's called redistribution. Now they are redistributing New Mexico's wind to L.A. because they don't want no 1,000 ft. tall windmill off Santa Monica -- let alone a whole bunch of them.

New Mexico needs a windfall wind-tax.

Zeihanism

The Breakdown of the Republican Coalition (Trump's Fault?) || Peter Zeihan

As an aside, incumbents should declare the current horrendous budget deficit as part of their re-election campaign expenses.

As for Peter's screed, yeah. I don't know. The anti-Trump crowd is looking a little bonkers -- and that includes almost all of DC. The "outsider" candidate usually has an advantage. When Democrat Progressives are out of power they run as visionaries, painting a bright picture of the future -- which is best not examined too closely because everyone has a different vision of the future. For a Republican, it helps to be a governor who will bring common sense to running an out-of-control Washington when run by visionaries who are mucking up the present. No more gas ranges for you!  It's probably worth five points in each case (I should mention I don't know what I'm talking about).

The Donald ran as an outsider who became an insider (standing on the stage with Dr. Fauci was enough). He's since been re-outsided. In fact, the establishment would cast him into eternal perdition if they could (and are still trying). Recently, I joked that Democrats want convicts to vote and Republicans want to elect one President.

The Democrats were also the cool party. It really had nothing to do with their candidates and everything to do with their control of culture. Lately, it seems Nurse Ratchet has taken over their nanny state and Hollywood sermons are falling flat. Could be a long-term problem for them if Conservative anti-woke becomes the next fad. They can say Trump wants to control access to abortion but they want to control everything else -- and is forcing an "abortion choice" really out of the question? (They used to argue abortion saved money on Welfare and cut down on crime and, anyway, 90 percent of humanity is excess baggage on Spaceship Earth and is best disposed of. Don't worry, Gaia will sort them out.) 

I think Peter's confusing Business with Wall Street. Wall Street will support Biden (a trillion dollars buys a lot of love) but small to medium-sized businesses are thrown into chaos by the massive expansion of the regulatory state. Trump will give them the good stuff without a lot of the bad.

The Military and national-security-minded voters have every reason to go with Trump. The Obama faction made a lot of left-leaning appointments (the CIA director voted for a Stalinist as his third-party choice) and leaked their political hackery to progressive journalists (Traitor Trump!).  This coalition could be an inch wide and an Inch deep but quite loud (or, if you prefer, outspoken).

Oh, yeah, and it's the economy.

The Material is there, but is the Heart of Russia Willing?

The Ukraine War & the Battle of Avdiivka || Peter Zeihan

Will Putin ever tire of his War of Attrition?

Time was the Peasants would have four or five kids expecting to lose a few to one or two of the four horsemen.  When you have one son the calculations change.  If they are drawing heavily from the minority populations -- who might not be pleased by that approach -- and run out of convicts, they may find that war of attrition has become a threat to the regime -- though stopping so far short of the mark is not necessarily the better option.

Thanks to Putin, many of the folks who wanted the Soviet Union to stay together now want the Russian Federation to fall apart. If China gets Vladivostok -- which they claim -- then the US should take the Kamchatka Peninsula and the tiny bit of Russia that lies to the north of it and some of those islands to the south (we can make it all a National Park).

America, After Argentina

Argentina, After America || Peter Zeihan

Peter provides the conventional thinking of the deep-state with a leavening of common sense. His attitude toward Trump reflects this. His comparison of Trump and Peron is off the mark only because it misses the point.  The Obama/Clinton deep-staters tried to frame Trump as a Russian spy. I was never a Trump fan -- I thought him a bloviating braggart (or, more politely, one accomplished in the art of bragging). But a spy? Com'on. Plus, the accusations came from hacks who are highly paid professional liars. It didn't bother me during the campaign. After all, they were trying to keep hold of the many trillions of dollars that flow through DC every year and, as importantly, exercise the power to regulate everything. That kind of power is well worth the lies (apparently, we are still supposed to believe them). If Hillary could have pulled off an Evita, she'd have done so with song and dance.

What did the Donald want to do as the Prez?

1.  Cut illegal immigration and increase legal immigration.
2.  Put tariffs on China.
3. Rebuild our Military. 
4. Pass the Republican tax plan. 
5. Cut some of the more ridiculous regulations.

Sorry, that is not a Peronist program -- in fact, it was a rather moderate return to the political norm after a left-wing administration. The tariffs on China are still in place, and the military still has its budget. What's the Obama-Biden "not at all Peronist" program? They have deliberately re-havoced the southern border for their own political purposes while wildly growing government spending. They have ballooned the national debt and are obsessively regulating everything.

Meanwhile, the Clinton-Obama Democrats use the government to go after the political opposition -- but it ain't Peronist when they do it. Yeah. Sorry. Peron is the "new normal" in DC and it's not Trump's doing.

COP-Out China

 COP28 Climate Change Conference

They're throwing another Climate Change feast somewhere and the number 28 means there were 27 previous party-hardies for the Climate Control Crowd. Peter Zeihan provides a short summation of what is going on. Apparently China, often held up as a model, is in "count me out" mode on the latest proposal.

Zeihan makes a point similar to the one I've been making for decades: CO2 is like "the little gas that could" in the global warming catastrophe scenario.  It works on a narrow spectrum of sunlight and is quite potent when first introduced but soon approaches its "upper limit" when it comes to greenhouse warming. At this point, its additional effects are rather small (water vapor is more powerful and when will they do something about the rain?). To get its assigned Civilization-destroying job done, CO2 needs a lot of help. This comes in the form of "feedback loops."

Methane is a potent greenhouse gas.  There is a lot of methane hydrate at the bottom of the ocean, where the pressure and the cold keep it trapped.  Warm the Oceans and this methane is released, leading to a runaway greenhouse effect and a potential mass extinction event.  This is the "feedback loop" that all the other "feedback loops" lead to.

There is a problem though. Methane breaks down rapidly in the atmosphere and in a few years much of it is gone and in ten years all of it. So it can't be a slow, steady release of methane, it has to happen quickly to produce the kind of effects that will make fearful populations willing to pay more taxes, higher more bureaucrats and submit to more control. Not Enough Government seems to be the real crisis all these Climate COPs are addressing.

Deutschland Uber all the Rest?

 The End of Germany as a Modern Economy || Peter Zeihan

Peter uses his "Merry Prophet of Doom" persona for this short video. He's hiking in the Rockies and increased endorphins may account for his detachment from the existential struggles facing the inhabitants of central Europe. In the past, these folks became quite proactive when facing a perceived threat -- just ask the ancient Romans. Need we mention the "Lebensraum" phase that required so much of the world's attention in the 1930s and 1940s? No. Simply alluding to those events will do.

He mentions Germany's 2 trillion dollar expenditure on "Green Energy," and the statistical and rhetorical tap-dancing required to make it appear more than a waste of resources. Then there is the bet on Russia as the primary source of the raw materials that feed German Industry -- putting Putin in the position to cut that lifeline. Fortunately, coal's discount cousin, lignite (with its bonus CO2), has come to the rescue.

He expected Putin's cutting the gas supply would make German support for Ukraine collapse, but I wasn't so sure: Donald Trump predicted that scenario, and we can't have him look good. So, which is the more likely explanation: the Social Democrats' unexpected acquisition of fortitude or their sudden need to avoid embarrassment?

In the end, Peter suggests that an aging population may cause Germany to "pass into this good night -- quietly" instead of -- as Dylan Thomas said -- raging against the dying of the light. Who wants to see Germany in a rage?

I'm not so sure about the dying of Germany's industrial might or light -- though not about the "quietly" part, since Quiet Patience can be an excellent policy. Through no fault of its own, Germany finds Ukraine fighting a war that America is largely financing that will, in the end, likely benefit Germany. Assuming Ukraine maintains its independence -- with or without territorial loss -- it will be dependent on a benevolent Germany and it will be in Germany's interest to be benevolent. Ukraine can supply food from industrial farms and young people to an industrial Germany (Ukraine also has an aging population but its young people can send money home to mom and dad). A chastened Russia will once again become a reliable raw material supplier while needing a German-dominated NATO as a guarantor against an expansionist China and secessionist movements.

Did I say "a German-dominated Nato?" Yep. With a Russian defeat in Ukraine, the US participation in NATO will no longer be needed. Remember, the reason for keeping America in is to keep Germany down, and why would the Germans want that? As NATO's focus moves into Central Asia, Americans will feel increasingly uncomfortable with their membership in the organization, and rightly so: very few Americans want to get involved in a country whose name ends in stan. Perhaps the Germans will show the US the door while the French become desperate for the Americans to stay. Might they offer the US a base in Alsace-Lorraine?

More Process than Industry?

 The Greatest Reindustrialization Process in US History

Peter Zeihan thinks industry in the US has a bright future, and I'm in half-hearted agreement.

Countries with a high-taxed, highly regulated, highly centralized economy tend towards stagnation, not growth. Reindustrialization will require supply-side, not command-side, policies. It is the nature of the Crony Class to prefer a command economy because it favors the Crony Class -- who are the ones issuing the commands.

At its center, the Crony Class consists of politicians, political hacks, bureaucrats, and those who acquire power through their ability to influence government action -- the lawyer, lobbyist, and dark-money crowd. This group took to heart Scarface's advice, "First you get the power, then you get the money, then you get the girl." Confusingly, we now have to add the lawyer/lobbyist girls who want to be "the man" while still blaming "the man" when the man is actually, you know, a man.

The outer ring includes those who benefit from government action, such as corporations that fear bureaucratic overreach or seek government favor, or the education establishment which devours government resources while avoiding societal accountability. To this add the legions of minions whose livelihoods depend on promoting Crony Class Interests, such as MSM Journalists (not to be confused with reporters), aspiring academics (not to be confused with actual scientists), and "house experts" (not to be confused with people who know what the hell they are talking about). The tentacles of this class reach far and wide, and gives the appearance of "Nerds working for Sociopaths."

The developing "Cronny Class Consciousness" and the governing philosophy of "Feudalism with the Right People in Charge" will produce economic malaise and shortages because these conditions favor those with influence.

Crony Class Consciousness allows them to act as a unit to protect class interest with little coordination. They framed Donal Trump (a minor threat) as a Russian agent for three years, knowing it was bunkum from day one. When it no longer played, the media moved on to the next set of feeble accusations class members promote. Objectively, these are the actions of horrible people. Subjectively, they have their reasons. This beast is hungry and needs to be fed. Economic stagnation is just a reflection of that appetite.

"Feudalism with the Right People in Charge," says the ruling nobility should come from an accredited, pseudo-intellectual caste (the "nobility of the mind"), not a military one. The philosophy provides the justification for the rule of the Crony Class (i.e. Climate Change requires their control of resources) and the rationale for keeping their "expert" descendants in charge (having a lot of kids -- which will expand family contacts in an influence-peddling system -- is frowned upon). Diversity-Equity-Inclusion is sold as the ability to include but is actually the power to exclude. Everyone should get in their place and stay there. Mind the Queue.

In feudal societies, the nobility controls weapons and armor. Today, we can add information, entertainment, and criticism to that arsenal. Crony Class Controlled "AI" censorship that shuns transgressors, has already arrived -- enabling a totalitarian system that promotes officially sanctioned bigotry.

Bloody War Catch-up

 And Now We Return to Our Regularly Scheduled Program (Ukraine War Updates)

Peter Zeihan looks at Ukraine's counteroffensive as it enters its fourth week.

When Putin launched his invasion, I didn't expect it to go well because the iron law of armed conflict is that wars are easier to start than to stop -- although there are notable exceptions to the rule.

In the 1930s, Ukrainians were "starved into submission" by Moscow (Putin's a veteran of the "security service" that carried out that particular genocide). They suffered rough treatment immediately before and after WWII -- during which large armies engaged in brutal combat rolled over the area twice. As a result, Ukrainians could expect a Russian victory to be followed by a heavy hand holding a mallet.

Because of Moscow's previous rule over the country, numerous fifth columnists were in place (the Russian thrust out of Crimea went surprisingly well). As the effort stalled, the worm -- and the Ukranian nation -- turned.

Unfortunately, Russia grabbed a lot of territories, and taking it back is a long and bloody process, even with Western Military aid -- a fraction of which, delivered before the invasion, would likely have prevented it.

Lab-Leak Leak Links Lab to Lab-Leak

Peter Zeihan || COVID: What Really Happened in Wuhan?

Peter Zeihan says the US government bureaucracies that stated, with low confidence, that the SARS-COV2 virus leaked from the Wuhan China lab are not known for their medical expertise.

However, the FBI and the Energy Department weren't providing funds to the Wuhan Lab, whereas some of the more prominent government "lab-leak" deniers were funding-involved. In the early 2000's Congress -- playing to the "superstitious rubes" in the hinterland -- banned gain-of-function research in the US. Is it possible that those whose careers were dependent on this work used the Wuhan lab as a way around the ban? Let me suggest, with low confidence, that yeah, they did.

The evidence in support of the "lab-leak theory" has been around since 2020. Citing the evidence back then got you labeled a conspiracy theorist and a likely right-wing racist. Where Big Science and Big Politics meet, one hand washes the other -- or is it a scrub, clear up to the elbow, with careful attention to under the fingernails?