How Long Was Rome on the Rhine?

Europe Goes Nuclear: Is America Leaving NATO? || Peter Zeihan

While hitchhiking through West Germany in 1971, a young German picked me up and wanted the US to end its occupation -- he might have meant "of Native American land" but, since the US had 200,000 troops staring down the Red Army at the Fulda gap, I figured he was talking about Germany. I told him to look at a map of the USA: everyone outside of NYC and DC would easily agree to leave -- if it was about occupation rather than preventing the next horrendous war.

I mentioned that "The Red Army" was a two-day drive -- by armored division -- from the Rhine. If the West Germans didn't want tank tracks down their backs, they'd have to replace those 200,000 American "occupiers" (and the accompanying security guarantee) with half a million Germans in jackboots. Then the rest of Europe would build out their militaries, not because they feared Russia but because they feared Germany. (I'd made some Dutch friends and they told me that they were so fond of Germany they loved having two of them.)

President Trump asked the Germans to stop starving their military while gobbling up Russian energy and they laughed at him (literally, there's video) -- that's some costly laughter. He provided Ukraine with the stingers and Javelins that stalled Putin's drive on Kyiv. If I remember correctly, the Biden administration paused "lethal" aid (for a lengthy and thorough process of review) when assuming power. That's like ringing the dinner bell for someone like Putin. I swear, Washington DC is so overrun with self-centered, self-dealing fools that Donald Trump looks good.  Ditto the Capital of Europe -- is it really Defacto Brussels or just Defacto?

At some point, the American military guarantee for Europe will end. Since the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior, it's wise to ask: How will Europeans prevent the internecine slaughters that lay ahead? And at what point will the US get dragged in?

Them Spears need Warheads

The Grater of Empires State.

 'LOSER STATE'

 Governor of New York -- The Empire State -- Democrat Kathleen Hochul argues the political targeting of Republican Donald Trump by a rogue prosecutor and Judge was a "One and Done" deal -- in effect admitting that it was political. Kevin O'Leary, Chairman of O'Leary Ventures, begs to differ. There were no victims in the case and seeing a radical leftist prosecutor jump to the defense of international bankers would be amusing but for the likely "decline and economic fallout" that follows as money flows out of the city and state to fairer lands. 

If the judge had dismissed the case instead of (rather gleefully, it seems) slapping The Donald with a $355 million fine (and 9 percent interest), the "one and done" argument may have gained some traction.  Not now. It used to be "the process is the punishment" but now the punishment is followed by more punishment. A corrupt politician can get his loser son-in-law -- let's call him Hunter -- a high-paying job by threatening a businessman with the "Trump Treatment."  It would be an equity hire. You see, the corrupt pols now have equity in your business -- otherwise known as a protection racket.

Making small fortunes in New York

Come to think of it, nothing!

Andrew Sullivan: What I got wrong about Trump 

Conclusions are often reached -- with a jump, sometimes a leap.

I've read some of Andrew's considerable punditry over the decades. Born in the UK, he was a Gay supporter of the 1980s Super Conservative, Magaret Thatcher -- a rather select demographic in the USA, but the Labor Party had screwed up so badly in the 60s and 70s (with help from a rather timid Tory establishment) that he may have had considerable company at Oxford. After his move to America, he joined The New Republic -- a not-quite far-left magazine -- and branded himself a "gay conservative" who was also a principled anti-communist (The Cold War was still on). But when you live among progressives, it's easy to think you are a conservative. Progressives have a two-step program: 1) Give Us Power! 2) Wonderful Things Happen!

Conservative Progressives also have a two-step program. 1) Give Us Power...2) Wonderful things happen? If you change the exclamation mark into a question mark, while sounding a bit less sure of yourself, you have the difference. Don't ask too many questions, though, because the answers might make you an actual, Constitutional Conservative. Defending constitutional interpretations that help your political movement doesn't count (Trump's an Insurrectionist, yay! So take their guns away!).

In 2016, I told progressive friends, who seemed too confident about Hillary Clinton's chances, to watch a Trump rally on YouTube rather than just repeat a Trump "quote" ad infinitum. Rather than making a prepared speech, he spoke extemporaneously. He would wander off-topic for a few minutes and then, almost magically, pick up where he left off. Often the "quote" was a spontaneous remark that got twisted by a Trusted Commentator with Reliable Sources (certified by The Political Commentator Cartel). It is like taking a vaguely complimentary remark Trump made about Vladimir Putin and using it to prove he's a Russian Spy (oh, wait, they did that). But as you watched Trump at his rallies, you actually felt like you knew him. He certainly was not trying to fool anyone.

I feared Trump would leave a lot of Obama's people in place and they would undermine his presidency, which is what happened (he left office with a dozen knives in his back). As a businessman, he assumed the people would do their jobs and not do him dirty. Obama put ideologues in place, and they were loyal to the movement, and their knives were out. The bureaucracy voted 97 percent for Hillary (some voted for the Green Party), so thinking Trump could become a dictator is delusional. When I watched Trump rallies, I didn't get those Mussolini vibes (who was, by the way, a socialist). 

Trump was immediately framed as a Russian spy by the Clinton Campaign and Democrats in the bureaucracy and Congress (OK, some were pretending to be Republicans). Somehow, that doesn't make Congressman Adam Schiff, who lied daily to the voters about Trump's supposed "Russian Connections," a threat to Democracy.  Indeed, the Democrats think that qualifies him for the Senate.

After these efforts fizzled, Nancy Pelosi impeached Trump because he wanted to investigate obvious Biden family corruption in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Biden family took millions from Ukraine, and are now giving billions back -- but that's no reason to question their motives.

Trump deported thousands of ruthless gang members here illegally, who no doubt promptly returned when Biden opened the border. Who cares more about actual minority Americans?

If Andrew really worries about Dictatorship he would worry about the Democrats who went after Trump supporters and locked people up without trial. The DC Dems are actively defending their Democracy by destroying America's.

Will Trump's assuming office in 2025 entail risks? Of course. But endorsing the course the Statist Democrats have set, with their fake frame jobs and divide and conquer tactics, entails much greater risks. So, on balance, I'll go with the Donald.

He could have implicated Tucker, too

I recommend watching Taras Bulba, the 1962 movie based on Gogol's novel, before watching Vladimir Putin's interview with Tucker Carlson. He begins with a History lesson that is more of a his-story lesson. The movie is more entertaining and only a little longer. Tony Curtis plays a Cossack who grew up in Brooklyn, New York. 

Illustration for the novel by Pyotr Sokolov, 1861

Das Flick

Here is how Vladimir should have started his presentation:

"Tucker, Donald Trump really is my puppet in the USA. Unfortunately, he lost his value due to the heroic efforts of Hillary Clinton, the Obama Administration, and the New York Times. We recruited him in High School, and our entire investment in him went down the drain!

"Also, I want to thank you, Tucker, personally, for your help in our massive disinformation campaigns. You are worth your weight in gold, my friend. But instead of gold, you'll get rubles. I hear the Chinese like them."

What a missed opportunity! If he gave that little speech, he would be hailed as a great truth-teller. Then the Davos crowd would give him Ukraine, they'd be so happy. Oh, well.

The Prisoner of Zenda Election

 If Trump Is Convicted of a Crime, How Much, If Any, Support Would He Lose?

Up to 55 percent, apparently.

In 2015 I wasn't a Trump supporter and told those who were that the Media went after Trump to increase his support in the Republican base (who dislike the media for good reason) and assure his nomination, while driving away the middle, resulting in a huge win for Progressives. They probably had polls showing this.

Obviously, the progressive's use of the MSM to defeat Trump didn't work. The use of the Justice system in 2024 could have a similar result, elevating the Democrats' abuse of the courts to a major campaign issue that could significantly damage the Party's reputation. They convinced a lot of people that the Justice system was unfair and ripe with abuse in 2020. They've convinced a lot more since -- making it an issue most Americans can agree on.

The Democrats focus-group everything. I'm sure their focus groups on Impeaching Trump brought them great Joy. In the end, having to stand on the stage with Dr. Anthony Fauci may have hurt him more.

Who is that masked Beauracrat?

If Trump's polls are running high in the run-up to the election, we'll hear how Hitler also spent time in jail (but nothing about Nelson Mandela).

If You Can't Fool Him Twice, Lock Him Up.

Candidate Donald Trump now talks of Firing the "Deep State"-- that network of self-serving, unelected officials and their cronies. That might explain why they want him slapped into a Supermax cell.

The President can appoint about 4,000 positions and in 2017 President Trump should have replaced all of them on Day One. He didn't and was still getting stabbed in the back by people who worked for him two years later. Republican Presidents have a bad habit of leaving Democrat appointments in place.

President Obama, his predecessor, was an ideological leftist who appointed ideological leftists who would, themselves, appoint ideological leftists. They, in turn, network with their fellows in and out of government (Wallstreet, Foundations, Universities, Contractors, Lawyer-Lobbyists, Journalists, and on and on). This maze of special-interest groups forms what I call "The Crony Class" -- those who want to control their fellow citizens (and benefit from that control) through their control of Washington DC. They possess a "Crony Class Consciousness."

Like Lois Lerner (who "slow-walked" tax-exempt status for right-leaning groups in 2012) and the DOJ lawyers currently targeting Trump and his supporters, those with Crony Class Consciousness don't need to be instructed in what to do and their actions come with prepackaged rationalizations. They are building a better future free of racism and such. True patriotism is loyalty to that better future. They are responsible for that better future, not the horrible past or the messy present. Current deficiencies are on the normies who are in need of re-education.

Meanwhile, the Crony Class takes care of its own. Lori Lightfoot, the failed Chicago Mayor, landed a teaching gig at Harvard upon leaving office.

Favorable Indictments

Peter Zeihan asks: How Will Donald Trump's New Indictment(s) Impact the Election?

Peter thinks the various indictments will not prevent The Donald from getting the nomination but will prevent the Republicans from winning in 2024 because "swing voters" will swing away. This parallels the thinking from 2015. The DC crowd thought they could spend a lot of time attacking The Donald and he would get the nomination because of their attacks (even they know they are disliked). They figured they would clobber him among the swing voters in 2016, who hate them so much less. It didn't quite work out that way.

In 2020, through a combination of Covid Lockdowns, NGO-sponsored riots about race, Helicopter Money and Helicopter Ballots, the DC establishment beat The Donald. Still, he got 10 million more votes than he got in 2016. 

Riots and Lockdowns are off the table for 2024 because such systematic destruction will blow back on Biden.  Helicopter money will likely cause double-digit inflation. In other presentations, Peter Zeihan says that poor grain harvest will increase food prices. Will higher food prices affect the ballot harvest?

It seems Joe Biden got millions from Ukraine when he was V.P., which is why they impeached Donald Trump (the impeachment involved the "good" mishandling of classified material on the part of DC insiders). The money was well spent on Ukraine's part (it's pay to play with HIMARS) but makes Joe's motives for supporting them to the hilt less than pure. I suppose he could say, "I took a lot of money from the Chinese but look how I'm screwing with them!" Vote for Joe, he won't stay bought and if he does, they'll indict Trump.

In 1988 I thought Joe might make a good president and then he stole the biography of the UK Labour Party Leader (Neil Kinnock, I believe it was). I thought it a bad choice of biographies to steal. Of course, in 1992 Jerry Brown, the Progressive California governor, supported a 13 percent flat Federal Income Tax (including the Social Security tax) so...people change (or grow, in the case of a Progressive).

During his first term, the DC crowd actively worked to frame Donald Trump as a Russian spy, the type of thing horrible people do. DC is full of awful people. It attracts manipulative, self-dealing sociopaths -- and that's just the journalists. I don't expect it to improve. But I'll vote for The Donald anyways.

The Inditments should have been Leaked

The Trump indictments about mishandling classified material should have been classified as Ultra top-secret and then leaked to the New York Times. The source would remain anonymous. This person is not authorized to mishandle these top-secret documents about mishandling top-secret documents. You see, the undercover source leaked the documents to an undercover reporter who was under the same cover and in the same bed. As part of the resulting brouhaha, dotGov throws a big investigation to find the culprit who's not authorized to mishandle the classified material about mishandling classified material. The years-long investigation will go nowhere because why would it. Meanwhile, the New York Times will editorialize about how Trump mishandled documents he had previously declassified and kept locked up.

Of course, some secrets should be kept secret. For instance, the secret that Joe Biden is corrupt. This is purely a "need to know," and only the people actually paying the bribes (and enabling officials and journalists) need to know. So when President Trump's Ultra top-secret phone call with Ukrainian President Zelensky -- where Biden's corruption was touched on -- was leaked by someone not authorized to leak it, Trump was impeached. Obviously, Trump had no "need to know" of Biden's corruption. In any case, it was the best five-million Ukraine ever spent.  It's pay to play -- with HIMARS.

When Biden announced his Presidential bid not long after Trump took office, I said it was meant to keep corruption indictments at bay.  In 2017 even the mainstream media was reporting on his corruption as Vice President. Declaring his candidacy as the Democratic Party hopeful was a way to shut them up and get the "respected media" to actively suppress a story that would cast the entire Democratic party in a bad light. So I don't think Dr. Jill will allow Biden to gracefully bow out after one term and give up this anti-indictment superpower.

The Winner of the 2024 US Presidential Election Is...

Peter Zeihan makes his prediction for 2024 and he sees a rematch between Trump and Biden with a Biden win because swing voters such as Peter will go for the Democrats.

In 2016 I did not want Trump to get the nomination (I thought he was a moderate Democrat) but I told friends that the media did. By attacking Trump they could raise his numbers among the Republican base that hates the left-leaning media.  Meanwhile, their attacks would turn Peter Zeihan against Trump for the general election, ushering in large Democratic majorities. There weren't enough Peters, so it didn't quite work out that way.

There is an insider/outsider dynamic in presidential races -- which is why governors often make good candidates. In 2016 Trump was an outsider. In 2020 he stood onstage with a bunch of Washington insiders while the nation closed down -- plus it's hard for any president to escape responsibility for things that go wrong, even if it's caused by his political enemies (ie, mostly peaceful riots, etc).

For 2024 we see the media and the Democrats running the 2016 strategy. They've turned the race into the quintessential outsider running against the quintessential insider. The American people face only one political question: do you want everything in the nation run by a selected group of people in Washington D.C., plus their partners on  Wallstreet, in Silicon Valley, and that whole Hollywood/Davos globalist "you will own nothing and be happy or else" community.  I call this result "feudalism with the right people in charge." All the other issues are there to disguise that central issue. If Trump and the Republicans stay focused on that one question, they stand an excellent chance.