Z-mania

 Breaking: President Trump and VP Vance Spar with Zelensky in the Oval Office

In the past, the US made agreements with Joseph Stalin, Breshnev, and Mao -- but Zelensky warns the US about making a deal with Putin. He also tells JD Vance that his intelligence breifings are crap (which may be the case -- unless they are focused on LGBTQ matters). But hey, Z, Marco Rubio knows his dictators.

By lecturing on Putin's untrustworthiness, Zelensky wanted Trump to give a public "reassurance" that could be spun into a security guarantee. It blew up in his face.

Europeans don't understand the US. Trump went way out on a limb for Ukraine. His supporters -- you know, the people who got him elected -- oppose massive aid for Ukraine, and they certainly don't want US corporations economically entwinded there (and their employees being human shields in the border lands). Many are outright hostile to our involvement, which goes back to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's first Trump impeachment over that "perfect Ukrainian phone call" -- to Zelensky, as fate would have it.

Now, European "intellectuals" try to score "we stand with Ukraine" debating points after Zelensky wants to tell the US who it can negotiate with. What's the reaction of most Americans to all this? Fine, it's your problem now.

Zelensky played a leader on TV, where he got to write the script and the clever ending. Well, not today. Today he screwed the pooch. The American people will never support a forever war in the middle of Eurasia. Trump went further with this deal than is politically wise.

Ukraine's Thriving Enterprise

 Putin makes huge mistake as Trump’s comments backfire | Former senior advisor to Zelenskyy

First, non-native speakers of "American" need to know that "Being in the Disinformation Space" is a synonym for "Shut up, you ignorant fool." So, if the Z-man meant to say that to the President, well, he did. Trump probably gained another million supporters as a result. 

Let's assume Ukraine in the 2020s is not a corrupt Banna Republic, but rather a "poor but honest" nation. They don't want to live under Russian domination (who would?). Their European neighbors need to keep an expansionist Russia from their borders -- in fact, all of NATO shares that interest. As a result, this "Poor but Honest" nation receives massive amounts of aid for its war effort.  Soon, the decent people of this honest nation are employed in industries and businesses whose continued prosperity depends on continued war. Career prospects and promotions become dependent on continued war. The politicians in control have a support network dependent on divvied-up war aid. Would the decent people of this poor but honest nation lean toward the most favorable war aims, even if this means further fighting? Because, yes, while they are decent, they are also human.

Of course, not every person in every nation is decent. Corrupt officials and fraudulent businesses can be found everywhere. Realistically, "Corrupt Banna Republic" is a more accurate descriptor of Ukraine's ruling class -- which is more Kleptocratic than Aristocratic. Unsurprisingly, much of the massive infusion of aid is stolen or misallocated. Peace becomes a threat to prosperity. To get Ukraine on board the "peace train," the rulers need to see the war "gravy train" pulling onto the siding. Promises of peacetime opportunities for graft will, no doubt, be required. Their cooperation cannot be bought, but perhaps it can be rented.

While Ukraine's rulers may face a (financial) loss with the end of fighting, Russia's rulers have much to gain. The ending of sanctions and the unfreezing of assets, for instance. Is it possible that Trumps negotiators sensed a stubborness in Ukraine that was lacking in their discussions with the Russians?

 

Negotiating the Negotiations.

Did Trump Just Betray Ukraine?

President Trump's most vocal supporters are quite anti-Ukraine aid. This goes back to Trump's first impeachment, which was based on his phone call with Z-man.

When the Clinton-Pelosi-Obama team failed to frame him as a Russian Spy, Congressional Democrats and the media launched an Impeachment using a leak by a naturalized Intelligence Staffer from Ukraine. Now, by this time any listener to Conservative talk radio considered Ukraine a money laundering piggy bank for Democrats (ie, Hunter Biden's million-dollar no-show job with the legendarily corrupt Burisima). This colored their perception of the Obama-backed "Color Revolution." The chief witnesses at Pelosi's Kangaroo Impeachment Court did not dispel this impression. One was the rumored Brookings Institution paramour of the KGB ex-agent (if there is such a thing) that made up the infamous Steele Document (created by an ex-MI6 agent). To Trump supporters, the swamp is full of poisonous snakes.

I don't think Trump carries a grudge toward Ukraine but he cannot ignore the hostility of much of his political base. Throwing Ukraine under the first tire of the bus does him no political harm and may free him up to aid Ukraine in the future. Meanwhile, few voters want the US involved in conflicts in the Eurasian land mass. Even the Caucasians don't know where the Caucasus is.

How Long Was Rome on the Rhine?

Europe Goes Nuclear: Is America Leaving NATO? || Peter Zeihan

While hitchhiking through West Germany in 1971, a young German picked me up and wanted the US to end its occupation -- he might have meant "of Native American land" but, since the US had 200,000 troops staring down the Red Army at the Fulda gap, I figured he was talking about Germany. I told him to look at a map of the USA: everyone outside of NYC and DC would easily agree to leave -- if it was about occupation rather than preventing the next horrendous war.

I mentioned that "The Red Army" was a two-day drive -- by armored division -- from the Rhine. If the West Germans didn't want tank tracks down their backs, they'd have to replace those 200,000 American "occupiers" (and the accompanying security guarantee) with half a million Germans in jackboots. Then the rest of Europe would build out their militaries, not because they feared Russia but because they feared Germany. (I'd made some Dutch friends and they told me that they were so fond of Germany they loved having two of them.)

President Trump asked the Germans to stop starving their military while gobbling up Russian energy and they laughed at him (literally, there's video) -- that's some costly laughter. He provided Ukraine with the stingers and Javelins that stalled Putin's drive on Kyiv. If I remember correctly, the Biden administration paused "lethal" aid (for a lengthy and thorough process of review) when assuming power. That's like ringing the dinner bell for someone like Putin. I swear, Washington DC is so overrun with self-centered, self-dealing fools that Donald Trump looks good.  Ditto the Capital of Europe -- is it really Defacto Brussels or just Defacto?

At some point, the American military guarantee for Europe will end. Since the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior, it's wise to ask: How will Europeans prevent the internecine slaughters that lay ahead? And at what point will the US get dragged in?

Them Spears need Warheads

He could have implicated Tucker, too

I recommend watching Taras Bulba, the 1962 movie based on Gogol's novel, before watching Vladimir Putin's interview with Tucker Carlson. He begins with a History lesson that is more of a his-story lesson. The movie is more entertaining and only a little longer. Tony Curtis plays a Cossack who grew up in Brooklyn, New York. 

Illustration for the novel by Pyotr Sokolov, 1861

Das Flick

Here is how Vladimir should have started his presentation:

"Tucker, Donald Trump really is my puppet in the USA. Unfortunately, he lost his value due to the heroic efforts of Hillary Clinton, the Obama Administration, and the New York Times. We recruited him in High School, and our entire investment in him went down the drain!

"Also, I want to thank you, Tucker, personally, for your help in our massive disinformation campaigns. You are worth your weight in gold, my friend. But instead of gold, you'll get rubles. I hear the Chinese like them."

What a missed opportunity! If he gave that little speech, he would be hailed as a great truth-teller. Then the Davos crowd would give him Ukraine, they'd be so happy. Oh, well.

The Material is there, but is the Heart of Russia Willing?

The Ukraine War & the Battle of Avdiivka || Peter Zeihan

Will Putin ever tire of his War of Attrition?

Time was the Peasants would have four or five kids expecting to lose a few to one or two of the four horsemen.  When you have one son the calculations change.  If they are drawing heavily from the minority populations -- who might not be pleased by that approach -- and run out of convicts, they may find that war of attrition has become a threat to the regime -- though stopping so far short of the mark is not necessarily the better option.

Thanks to Putin, many of the folks who wanted the Soviet Union to stay together now want the Russian Federation to fall apart. If China gets Vladivostok -- which they claim -- then the US should take the Kamchatka Peninsula and the tiny bit of Russia that lies to the north of it and some of those islands to the south (we can make it all a National Park).

Deutschland Uber all the Rest?

 The End of Germany as a Modern Economy || Peter Zeihan

Peter uses his "Merry Prophet of Doom" persona for this short video. He's hiking in the Rockies and increased endorphins may account for his detachment from the existential struggles facing the inhabitants of central Europe. In the past, these folks became quite proactive when facing a perceived threat -- just ask the ancient Romans. Need we mention the "Lebensraum" phase that required so much of the world's attention in the 1930s and 1940s? No. Simply alluding to those events will do.

He mentions Germany's 2 trillion dollar expenditure on "Green Energy," and the statistical and rhetorical tap-dancing required to make it appear more than a waste of resources. Then there is the bet on Russia as the primary source of the raw materials that feed German Industry -- putting Putin in the position to cut that lifeline. Fortunately, coal's discount cousin, lignite (with its bonus CO2), has come to the rescue.

He expected Putin's cutting the gas supply would make German support for Ukraine collapse, but I wasn't so sure: Donald Trump predicted that scenario, and we can't have him look good. So, which is the more likely explanation: the Social Democrats' unexpected acquisition of fortitude or their sudden need to avoid embarrassment?

In the end, Peter suggests that an aging population may cause Germany to "pass into this good night -- quietly" instead of -- as Dylan Thomas said -- raging against the dying of the light. Who wants to see Germany in a rage?

I'm not so sure about the dying of Germany's industrial might or light -- though not about the "quietly" part, since Quiet Patience can be an excellent policy. Through no fault of its own, Germany finds Ukraine fighting a war that America is largely financing that will, in the end, likely benefit Germany. Assuming Ukraine maintains its independence -- with or without territorial loss -- it will be dependent on a benevolent Germany and it will be in Germany's interest to be benevolent. Ukraine can supply food from industrial farms and young people to an industrial Germany (Ukraine also has an aging population but its young people can send money home to mom and dad). A chastened Russia will once again become a reliable raw material supplier while needing a German-dominated NATO as a guarantor against an expansionist China and secessionist movements.

Did I say "a German-dominated Nato?" Yep. With a Russian defeat in Ukraine, the US participation in NATO will no longer be needed. Remember, the reason for keeping America in is to keep Germany down, and why would the Germans want that? As NATO's focus moves into Central Asia, Americans will feel increasingly uncomfortable with their membership in the organization, and rightly so: very few Americans want to get involved in a country whose name ends in stan. Perhaps the Germans will show the US the door while the French become desperate for the Americans to stay. Might they offer the US a base in Alsace-Lorraine?

Bloody War Catch-up

 And Now We Return to Our Regularly Scheduled Program (Ukraine War Updates)

Peter Zeihan looks at Ukraine's counteroffensive as it enters its fourth week.

When Putin launched his invasion, I didn't expect it to go well because the iron law of armed conflict is that wars are easier to start than to stop -- although there are notable exceptions to the rule.

In the 1930s, Ukrainians were "starved into submission" by Moscow (Putin's a veteran of the "security service" that carried out that particular genocide). They suffered rough treatment immediately before and after WWII -- during which large armies engaged in brutal combat rolled over the area twice. As a result, Ukrainians could expect a Russian victory to be followed by a heavy hand holding a mallet.

Because of Moscow's previous rule over the country, numerous fifth columnists were in place (the Russian thrust out of Crimea went surprisingly well). As the effort stalled, the worm -- and the Ukranian nation -- turned.

Unfortunately, Russia grabbed a lot of territories, and taking it back is a long and bloody process, even with Western Military aid -- a fraction of which, delivered before the invasion, would likely have prevented it.

The Dastardly Motive behind the Russian Coup Attempt.

This whole coup attempt was staged by Putin to divert the world's attention from the January Sixth Insurrectionist window-breaking incident at the Capitol in D.C., as well as the many crimes of Donald Trump. Putin, who is not known as the forgiving type, graciously pardoned everyone involved in the "Militarized March on Moscow," just to make Joe Biden and the Democrats appear petty and vindictive in their pursuit of justice. If he can forgive the downing of high-tech spyplanes and attack helicopters, the Dems can forgive a few broken windows. It is Russian interference in our Judicial System, plain and simple.

Limp Noodle

Prigozhin has called off his march on Moscow. Previously, I wrote that Noodles Romanov wanted to become Tsar Romanov.  But now he's just all wet.

He should stay away from windows and swimming pools. I suggest a world tour -- make that an anonymous would tour after plastic surgery.

Blackrock of Ages, Cleave Ukraine?

War, Good Lord! What is it good for? Well, that depends on the meaning of the word "good."

The Stoic over at Stoic Finance discusses the involvement of Blackrock in Ukraine. He provides a compact overview of both the Ukraine war and Blackrock. He claims he doesn't think Blackrock's overall intentions are good or evil but his presentation leans -- evil.

We should be careful not to credit malevolence to actions that can be explained by incompetence. Early on, the Biden administration canceled the "lethal" aid to Ukraine that the Trump administration approved, which was like ringing the dinner bell for Vlad the Invader. However, I don't believe they were sending an engraved invitation to war. They thought they were "lowering the threat level." Likewise, I don't think the administration or Blackrock wants to prolong Ukraine's agony. They're just doing a botched job.

I've no doubt Ukrainians remember the genocidal policies pursued by Moscow in the 1930s, so it's no surprise they decided to fight. By now the war has become a source of gainful employment for the non-refugee population, whose previous pursuits and careers were crushed. Russia's attempts to destroy civilian morale by attacking the infrastructure may increase their commitment to their current means of employment, which is war. Hopefully, that can soon be replaced with rebuilding.

Before the war, Ukraine was known for its corruption, not its scenic beaches or Alpine ski resorts. Under these circumstances, postwar aid would be confined to NGO soup kitchens. By partnering with Blackrock, they can provide some assurance that the thievery will be kept to a more reasonable level and economic aid may provide benefit to Europe and the wider world. Blackrock would not be my choice to run it but I'm not the one choosing.