Deutschland Uber all the Rest?

 The End of Germany as a Modern Economy || Peter Zeihan

Peter uses his "Merry Prophet of Doom" persona for this short video. He's hiking in the Rockies and increased endorphins may account for his detachment from the existential struggles facing the inhabitants of central Europe. In the past, these folks became quite proactive when facing a perceived threat -- just ask the ancient Romans. Need we mention the "Lebensraum" phase that required so much of the world's attention in the 1930s and 1940s? No. Simply alluding to those events will do.

He mentions Germany's 2 trillion dollar expenditure on "Green Energy," and the statistical and rhetorical tap-dancing required to make it appear more than a waste of resources. Then there is the bet on Russia as the primary source of the raw materials that feed German Industry -- putting Putin in the position to cut that lifeline. Fortunately, coal's discount cousin, lignite (with its bonus CO2), has come to the rescue.

He expected Putin's cutting the gas supply would make German support for Ukraine collapse, but I wasn't so sure: Donald Trump predicted that scenario, and we can't have him look good. So, which is the more likely explanation: the Social Democrats' unexpected acquisition of fortitude or their sudden need to avoid embarrassment?

In the end, Peter suggests that an aging population may cause Germany to "pass into this good night -- quietly" instead of -- as Dylan Thomas said -- raging against the dying of the light. Who wants to see Germany in a rage?

I'm not so sure about the dying of Germany's industrial might or light -- though not about the "quietly" part, since Quiet Patience can be an excellent policy. Through no fault of its own, Germany finds Ukraine fighting a war that America is largely financing that will, in the end, likely benefit Germany. Assuming Ukraine maintains its independence -- with or without territorial loss -- it will be dependent on a benevolent Germany and it will be in Germany's interest to be benevolent. Ukraine can supply food from industrial farms and young people to an industrial Germany (Ukraine also has an aging population but its young people can send money home to mom and dad). A chastened Russia will once again become a reliable raw material supplier while needing a German-dominated NATO as a guarantor against an expansionist China and secessionist movements.

Did I say "a German-dominated Nato?" Yep. With a Russian defeat in Ukraine, the US participation in NATO will no longer be needed. Remember, the reason for keeping America in is to keep Germany down, and why would the Germans want that? As NATO's focus moves into Central Asia, Americans will feel increasingly uncomfortable with their membership in the organization, and rightly so: very few Americans want to get involved in a country whose name ends in stan. Perhaps the Germans will show the US the door while the French become desperate for the Americans to stay. Might they offer the US a base in Alsace-Lorraine?