How Long Was Rome on the Rhine?

Europe Goes Nuclear: Is America Leaving NATO? || Peter Zeihan

While hitchhiking through West Germany in 1971, a young German picked me up and wanted the US to end its occupation -- he might have meant "of Native American land" but, since the US had 200,000 troops staring down the Red Army at the Fulda gap, I figured he was talking about Germany. I told him to look at a map of the USA: everyone outside of NYC and DC would easily agree to leave -- if it was about occupation rather than preventing the next horrendous war.

I mentioned that "The Red Army" was a two-day drive -- by armored division -- from the Rhine. If the West Germans didn't want tank tracks down their backs, they'd have to replace those 200,000 American "occupiers" (and the accompanying security guarantee) with half a million Germans in jackboots. Then the rest of Europe would build out their militaries, not because they feared Russia but because they feared Germany. (I'd made some Dutch friends and they told me that they were so fond of Germany they loved having two of them.)

President Trump asked the Germans to stop starving their military while gobbling up Russian energy and they laughed at him (literally, there's video) -- that's some costly laughter. He provided Ukraine with the stingers and Javelins that stalled Putin's drive on Kyiv. If I remember correctly, the Biden administration paused "lethal" aid (for a lengthy and thorough process of review) when assuming power. That's like ringing the dinner bell for someone like Putin. I swear, Washington DC is so overrun with self-centered, self-dealing fools that Donald Trump looks good.  Ditto the Capital of Europe -- is it really Defacto Brussels or just Defacto?

At some point, the American military guarantee for Europe will end. Since the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior, it's wise to ask: How will Europeans prevent the internecine slaughters that lay ahead? And at what point will the US get dragged in?

Them Spears need Warheads

The Material is there, but is the Heart of Russia Willing?

The Ukraine War & the Battle of Avdiivka || Peter Zeihan

Will Putin ever tire of his War of Attrition?

Time was the Peasants would have four or five kids expecting to lose a few to one or two of the four horsemen.  When you have one son the calculations change.  If they are drawing heavily from the minority populations -- who might not be pleased by that approach -- and run out of convicts, they may find that war of attrition has become a threat to the regime -- though stopping so far short of the mark is not necessarily the better option.

Thanks to Putin, many of the folks who wanted the Soviet Union to stay together now want the Russian Federation to fall apart. If China gets Vladivostok -- which they claim -- then the US should take the Kamchatka Peninsula and the tiny bit of Russia that lies to the north of it and some of those islands to the south (we can make it all a National Park).

Singaporean Joke Fest!

Thanks to the internet, Cancel Culture has gone global, as New Yorker Jocelyn Chia discovered to her dismay. A mild quip about the divorce between Malaysia and Singapore (after the British left sixty years ago) got her in trouble. She writes:

On June 5, the Comedy Cellar posted a clip from a show I had done in which I depicted Malaysia as the ex who broke up with Singapore—the country I grew up in—and Singapore was now having a "glow-up".

The clip was performing very well, but when I posted the same one on my social media on Tuesday morning, things started to take a nasty turn.

I first saw someone sharing my clip in an Instagram story—the words were in Malay which I didn't understand, but ended with a "wow!" Funnily enough, thinking it was a compliment, I reposted the story. However as negative story shares and comments rapidly piled up, I soon realized that "wow!" had not been meant as a compliment.

Next time, use Google Translate. No word on whether divorced people were offended.

I was in elementary school in the Midwest when the "divorce" happened. Lee Kuan Yew became Prime Minister of Singapore, an ethnic Chinese bastion with a Muslim Malay minority, a sizeable population from the Indian subcontinent, and a residue of Anglos. He ran the place -- it's fair to say he ran it -- from 1959 to 1990. He took "spare the rod, spoil the child" seriously: caning was a punishment. It functioned like a family firm with the patriarch using a firm hand -- near as I could tell from the far side of the World.

Singapore Inc. thrived and was often cited as a model for America by advocates of an "Industrial Policy" that picks economic "winners and losers" from the comfortable confines of D.C. office blocks and Ivy League campuses. Even as a kid, comparing a mid-sized city (less than two million inhabitants at the time) to a continent-sized nation didn't make much sense. At the time, Mayor Richard Daley's Chicago was called "the City that Works" (corruption greased the development skids), but no one suggested running the USA like Chicago -- until the Obama administration. Under Biden, it's Chicago all the way down.

This is not to knock Singapore. Long ago I spent a few weeks there and really liked it.

Malaysia took a different turn. The Malays were the majority but considered themselves an economic minority. In the 1970s, they launched the Bumiputera movement, an affirmative action program for the native Malays. Apparently, the better-off Bumis have learned to game the system.

I once had an extended conversation with an important figure in that movement. I stood in the Malaysian Business and Tourism office in Bangkok in 1981 when a nervous official came over and asked if I was an American. I said I was and he invited me to meet a fellow who had taken over his office for the occasion. Curious as to whether I would be arrested or offered some honor, I agreed.

He was an older fellow and introduced himself as a minor functionary when the anxious behavior of the local staff said otherwise. He wanted to know the attitude of ordinary Americans toward security in Southeast Asia, and I was the closest ordinary American. You see, "Cambodia Year Zero" became "Cambodia, population Zero" a few years earlier. The Vietnamese invaded and knocked over the skull racks. Refugees flooded into Thailand. The Cambodian communists were so bad that the Vietnamese communist looked good. It ended with a powerful army of veteran warriors poised near Thailand. When I headed for Asia, a friend asked me how far Bangkok was from the border. I said, "It's a two-day drive -- by tank."

During the conversation, I told my interlocutor that ordinary Americans don't care about Southeast Asian security. They tend to hear the "Americans go home" message and like the idea. That applies to the rest of the World too, except for Canada, Mexico, and Caribean vacation spots. As for Europe, well, if we leave they'll start fighting each other again and drag us into it so we stay. However, Americans will help their friends, so be friendly.

In return for my Geopolitical insights, I received a ticket to a luncheon in honor of Mahathir bin Mohamad, the new Malaysian Prime Minister -- destined to become a force in Malaysian politics for decades to come. It was free food, so I went.

They stuck me at a table full of correspondents from major Western media organizations (The Wall Street Journal and such). They were curious about why I was with them. I told of my happenstance encounter at the tourism office. Turns out he was Mahathir's guy (actually, it sounded the other way around), they all wanted to talk to him, but he wasn't giving interviews. It was a "pearls before swine" moment for them -- me being the swine.

The good news: I ate my fill. Mahathir was asked about the ethnic and racial divisions in Malaysia and he said we'd know it's solved when everyone starts marrying everyone else. I can't say he remained so open-minded going forward. Often politicians need those divisions.

Well, as is so often the case, it's a good joke if you know the history.

Bloody War Catch-up

 And Now We Return to Our Regularly Scheduled Program (Ukraine War Updates)

Peter Zeihan looks at Ukraine's counteroffensive as it enters its fourth week.

When Putin launched his invasion, I didn't expect it to go well because the iron law of armed conflict is that wars are easier to start than to stop -- although there are notable exceptions to the rule.

In the 1930s, Ukrainians were "starved into submission" by Moscow (Putin's a veteran of the "security service" that carried out that particular genocide). They suffered rough treatment immediately before and after WWII -- during which large armies engaged in brutal combat rolled over the area twice. As a result, Ukrainians could expect a Russian victory to be followed by a heavy hand holding a mallet.

Because of Moscow's previous rule over the country, numerous fifth columnists were in place (the Russian thrust out of Crimea went surprisingly well). As the effort stalled, the worm -- and the Ukranian nation -- turned.

Unfortunately, Russia grabbed a lot of territories, and taking it back is a long and bloody process, even with Western Military aid -- a fraction of which, delivered before the invasion, would likely have prevented it.

The Dastardly Motive behind the Russian Coup Attempt.

This whole coup attempt was staged by Putin to divert the world's attention from the January Sixth Insurrectionist window-breaking incident at the Capitol in D.C., as well as the many crimes of Donald Trump. Putin, who is not known as the forgiving type, graciously pardoned everyone involved in the "Militarized March on Moscow," just to make Joe Biden and the Democrats appear petty and vindictive in their pursuit of justice. If he can forgive the downing of high-tech spyplanes and attack helicopters, the Dems can forgive a few broken windows. It is Russian interference in our Judicial System, plain and simple.

Limp Noodle

Prigozhin has called off his march on Moscow. Previously, I wrote that Noodles Romanov wanted to become Tsar Romanov.  But now he's just all wet.

He should stay away from windows and swimming pools. I suggest a world tour -- make that an anonymous would tour after plastic surgery.

They done-gone crossed the Don.

Update: This was a quick take on Pregozhin's mutiny. Interestingly, he didn't follow the oldest advice in politics: when you strike at the King, kill him.

Suddenly, Ukraine against Russia is Ukraine against a Russia that's against itself, as the recent uncivil arguments among military leaders turn to civil war.

Someone has done-gone crossed the Don -- both the "Rubicon" River Don and the Don of the top Russian crime family. Yevgeny Prigozhin has launched his Wagner group at the throat of his Godfather, Vlad-the-invader. Maybe Putin putting this "criminal cook" at the head of a powerful, well-armed, independent, and ruthless military organization was a bad idea. Or a good one, depending on your point of view.

"Tsar" is the Russian form of Caesar and Prigozhin is doing a Juilius -- except Julius Caesar won his wars before he crossed the Rubicon and marched on Rome. Yevgeny behaves like he's Noodles Romanov but aims to become a Tsar Romanov -- successor to Putin the Terrible. I anticipate the Male Heirs of any Prigozhin era will be male errors. OK, enough with the puns.  

The conflict between Prigozhin and the rest of the Crime Family went on a slow boil last year. The Ukrainians holding on to the City of Bakhmut turned up the heat as the slaughter progressed. At first, I thought the dispute with the Defense Minister was contrived but it became so public I soon believed it was real. 

Could we see a repeat of the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk of a century ago? Aspiring Tsar Vladimir Lenin relinquished much of the Russian Empire to exit World War One and launch his Communist Red Army at the Bourgeoisie Whites in a bloody civil war. By announcing the withdrawal of Russian forces in Ukraine to the 2/22/2022 lines, Putin could free up troops to come at the Wagners from the rear while splitting NATO into "war-continuing" and "peace-declaring" camps. He should do this now while offering some sort of joint military guarantees for a semi-autonomous Crimea that the West -- if not Ukraine -- will quickly accept.

Interestingly, Prigozhin made a statement attacking the premise of the invasion of Ukraine that could well be a bid for support from NATO countries. If Putin doesn't act, Prigozhin may get it. The offer of a quick end to sanctions by the West in return for withdrawal to the 1991 borders with Ukraine would help Wagner Inc. win the support of the Russian elites.

The West will want a quick settlement here, if possible. A prolonged Civil War in Russia could quickly spread throughout central Asia and beyond.

Wagner is Going to Moscow.

Blackrock of Ages, Cleave Ukraine?

War, Good Lord! What is it good for? Well, that depends on the meaning of the word "good."

The Stoic over at Stoic Finance discusses the involvement of Blackrock in Ukraine. He provides a compact overview of both the Ukraine war and Blackrock. He claims he doesn't think Blackrock's overall intentions are good or evil but his presentation leans -- evil.

We should be careful not to credit malevolence to actions that can be explained by incompetence. Early on, the Biden administration canceled the "lethal" aid to Ukraine that the Trump administration approved, which was like ringing the dinner bell for Vlad the Invader. However, I don't believe they were sending an engraved invitation to war. They thought they were "lowering the threat level." Likewise, I don't think the administration or Blackrock wants to prolong Ukraine's agony. They're just doing a botched job.

I've no doubt Ukrainians remember the genocidal policies pursued by Moscow in the 1930s, so it's no surprise they decided to fight. By now the war has become a source of gainful employment for the non-refugee population, whose previous pursuits and careers were crushed. Russia's attempts to destroy civilian morale by attacking the infrastructure may increase their commitment to their current means of employment, which is war. Hopefully, that can soon be replaced with rebuilding.

Before the war, Ukraine was known for its corruption, not its scenic beaches or Alpine ski resorts. Under these circumstances, postwar aid would be confined to NGO soup kitchens. By partnering with Blackrock, they can provide some assurance that the thievery will be kept to a more reasonable level and economic aid may provide benefit to Europe and the wider world. Blackrock would not be my choice to run it but I'm not the one choosing.