The Prisoner of Zenda Election II

Can Former President Trump 'Make Felonies Great Again'? || Peter Zeihan

President Trump is a man of convictions -- 36 of them.

I don't expect "the Donald" to realize this, but the way he wins is by making sure the Democrats lose. Should his poll numbers crater, he has a good reason to leave the race and pick a replacement. In the meantime, he should take the high road and pledge to pardon "the Big Guy" for those corrupt dealings with Ukraine and China. Besides, it's like the Special Prosecutor said, the current occupant of the Oval Office is too frail for jail.

The Democrats spent 2020 convincing half of the nation that our justice system is unfair and all the years since convincing the other half of the same (that being the half that supported Federal Law Enforcement). This verdict can be seen as confirmation. And who caused the cratering of faith in our system of justice? The Democrat Party.

And remember, they tried to frame Trump as a spy and a traitor in 2016 (and seventeen and eighteen) and he got 10 million more votes in 2020. So-o-o.

The Prisoner of Zenda Election

I'll Take that One-in-a-Million Chance!

New documents strengthen—perhaps conclusively—the lab-leak hypothesis of Covid-19’s origins.

Gee, who knew.

I used to tell people that the Wuhan China Lab-Leak conspiracy theory started in the Wuhan lab. I wonder if the original conspiracy theorists became involuntary organ donors. The "they doth protest too much" reaction of Officially-Designate-Scientific Opinion everywhere suggested an embarrassing level of American involvement at the lab, if not in the specific research that may have resulted in the COVID-19 pandemic. It was the sort of experimentation that was banned in the US.

And now I read:

The DEFUSE proposal was authored by Peter Daszak, head of the EcoHealth Alliance in New York, with partners including Shi Zhengli of the Wuhan Institute of Virology and Ralph Baric of the University of North Carolina. The grant proposed to “introduce appropriate human-specific cleavage sites” into SARS-related viruses, a procedure that could have led to the creation of SARS2, with its distinctive furin cleavage site, depending on the starting virus used for the manipulation.

Oh, OK. Of course, there is still that one-in-a-million chance it originated "in nature" in a cave 500 miles from Wuhan, so don't believe everything you read.

Lab-Leak Leak Links Lab to Lab-Leak

Zeihanism

The Breakdown of the Republican Coalition (Trump's Fault?) || Peter Zeihan

As an aside, incumbents should declare the current horrendous budget deficit as part of their re-election campaign expenses.

As for Peter's screed, yeah. I don't know. The anti-Trump crowd is looking a little bonkers -- and that includes almost all of DC. The "outsider" candidate usually has an advantage. When Democrat Progressives are out of power they run as visionaries, painting a bright picture of the future -- which is best not examined too closely because everyone has a different vision of the future. For a Republican, it helps to be a governor who will bring common sense to running an out-of-control Washington when run by visionaries who are mucking up the present. No more gas ranges for you!  It's probably worth five points in each case (I should mention I don't know what I'm talking about).

The Donald ran as an outsider who became an insider (standing on the stage with Dr. Fauci was enough). He's since been re-outsided. In fact, the establishment would cast him into eternal perdition if they could (and are still trying). Recently, I joked that Democrats want convicts to vote and Republicans want to elect one President.

The Democrats were also the cool party. It really had nothing to do with their candidates and everything to do with their control of culture. Lately, it seems Nurse Ratchet has taken over their nanny state and Hollywood sermons are falling flat. Could be a long-term problem for them if Conservative anti-woke becomes the next fad. They can say Trump wants to control access to abortion but they want to control everything else -- and is forcing an "abortion choice" really out of the question? (They used to argue abortion saved money on Welfare and cut down on crime and, anyway, 90 percent of humanity is excess baggage on Spaceship Earth and is best disposed of. Don't worry, Gaia will sort them out.) 

I think Peter's confusing Business with Wall Street. Wall Street will support Biden (a trillion dollars buys a lot of love) but small to medium-sized businesses are thrown into chaos by the massive expansion of the regulatory state. Trump will give them the good stuff without a lot of the bad.

The Military and national-security-minded voters have every reason to go with Trump. The Obama faction made a lot of left-leaning appointments (the CIA director voted for a Stalinist as his third-party choice) and leaked their political hackery to progressive journalists (Traitor Trump!).  This coalition could be an inch wide and an Inch deep but quite loud (or, if you prefer, outspoken).

Oh, yeah, and it's the economy.

America, After Argentina

Argentina, After America || Peter Zeihan

Peter provides the conventional thinking of the deep-state with a leavening of common sense. His attitude toward Trump reflects this. His comparison of Trump and Peron is off the mark only because it misses the point.  The Obama/Clinton deep-staters tried to frame Trump as a Russian spy. I was never a Trump fan -- I thought him a bloviating braggart (or, more politely, one accomplished in the art of bragging). But a spy? Com'on. Plus, the accusations came from hacks who are highly paid professional liars. It didn't bother me during the campaign. After all, they were trying to keep hold of the many trillions of dollars that flow through DC every year and, as importantly, exercise the power to regulate everything. That kind of power is well worth the lies (apparently, we are still supposed to believe them). If Hillary could have pulled off an Evita, she'd have done so with song and dance.

What did the Donald want to do as the Prez?

1.  Cut illegal immigration and increase legal immigration.
2.  Put tariffs on China.
3. Rebuild our Military. 
4. Pass the Republican tax plan. 
5. Cut some of the more ridiculous regulations.

Sorry, that is not a Peronist program -- in fact, it was a rather moderate return to the political norm after a left-wing administration. The tariffs on China are still in place, and the military still has its budget. What's the Obama-Biden "not at all Peronist" program? They have deliberately re-havoced the southern border for their own political purposes while wildly growing government spending. They have ballooned the national debt and are obsessively regulating everything.

Meanwhile, the Clinton-Obama Democrats use the government to go after the political opposition -- but it ain't Peronist when they do it. Yeah. Sorry. Peron is the "new normal" in DC and it's not Trump's doing.

Think of it as "Wet-landia"

Commentary: ‘The Swamp’ is everywhere — even in Republican Tennessee

I call the conglomeration of special interests that controls this country The Crony Class. The Crony Class has its Crony Class Consciousness and Crony Class interests. Its chief interest is a continually growing government, used to dispense favors and money to members of the Crony Class and the retainers who support their demands.

Naturally, they cannot be upfront about any of this. I would rather discuss the 2,200 billion dollars of borrowed money (just this year!) they are using to keep themselves in power, as well as the tens of thousands of additional pages of regulations they are using to solidify their class interests and pick winners (themselves) and losers (everyone else). They would prefer I focus my attention on the tribulations and trials (literally) of Donald Trump -- not that I blame them.

After all, they want to control the 7,200 billion dollars flowing through Washington DC every year (and grow it to 10,000 billion) and take control of everything in the nation through the regulatory and retaliatory bureaucracy. These are high stakes, and it would take a collection of saints to avoid temptation (and there are far more sociopaths in this class than saints). So they put some people in jail who shouldn't be there and release others who should be incarcerated, even when that seems detrimental to their political interest.

However, convicting the innocent while freeing the guilty displays their power and prepares their retainers for the harshers measures that will be inevitably called for. You see, their appetite grows with the eating, and they'll soon be short of food. Unfortunately, the rest of us will be starving (on account of the bad weather caused by Henry Ford providing cars to the workers, who should be kept in their place). I call this future end-state Feudalism with the Right People in Charge.

If You Can't Fool Him Twice, Lock Him Up.

Candidate Donald Trump now talks of Firing the "Deep State"-- that network of self-serving, unelected officials and their cronies. That might explain why they want him slapped into a Supermax cell.

The President can appoint about 4,000 positions and in 2017 President Trump should have replaced all of them on Day One. He didn't and was still getting stabbed in the back by people who worked for him two years later. Republican Presidents have a bad habit of leaving Democrat appointments in place.

President Obama, his predecessor, was an ideological leftist who appointed ideological leftists who would, themselves, appoint ideological leftists. They, in turn, network with their fellows in and out of government (Wallstreet, Foundations, Universities, Contractors, Lawyer-Lobbyists, Journalists, and on and on). This maze of special-interest groups forms what I call "The Crony Class" -- those who want to control their fellow citizens (and benefit from that control) through their control of Washington DC. They possess a "Crony Class Consciousness."

Like Lois Lerner (who "slow-walked" tax-exempt status for right-leaning groups in 2012) and the DOJ lawyers currently targeting Trump and his supporters, those with Crony Class Consciousness don't need to be instructed in what to do and their actions come with prepackaged rationalizations. They are building a better future free of racism and such. True patriotism is loyalty to that better future. They are responsible for that better future, not the horrible past or the messy present. Current deficiencies are on the normies who are in need of re-education.

Meanwhile, the Crony Class takes care of its own. Lori Lightfoot, the failed Chicago Mayor, landed a teaching gig at Harvard upon leaving office.

Favorable Indictments

Peter Zeihan asks: How Will Donald Trump's New Indictment(s) Impact the Election?

Peter thinks the various indictments will not prevent The Donald from getting the nomination but will prevent the Republicans from winning in 2024 because "swing voters" will swing away. This parallels the thinking from 2015. The DC crowd thought they could spend a lot of time attacking The Donald and he would get the nomination because of their attacks (even they know they are disliked). They figured they would clobber him among the swing voters in 2016, who hate them so much less. It didn't quite work out that way.

In 2020, through a combination of Covid Lockdowns, NGO-sponsored riots about race, Helicopter Money and Helicopter Ballots, the DC establishment beat The Donald. Still, he got 10 million more votes than he got in 2016. 

Riots and Lockdowns are off the table for 2024 because such systematic destruction will blow back on Biden.  Helicopter money will likely cause double-digit inflation. In other presentations, Peter Zeihan says that poor grain harvest will increase food prices. Will higher food prices affect the ballot harvest?

It seems Joe Biden got millions from Ukraine when he was V.P., which is why they impeached Donald Trump (the impeachment involved the "good" mishandling of classified material on the part of DC insiders). The money was well spent on Ukraine's part (it's pay to play with HIMARS) but makes Joe's motives for supporting them to the hilt less than pure. I suppose he could say, "I took a lot of money from the Chinese but look how I'm screwing with them!" Vote for Joe, he won't stay bought and if he does, they'll indict Trump.

In 1988 I thought Joe might make a good president and then he stole the biography of the UK Labour Party Leader (Neil Kinnock, I believe it was). I thought it a bad choice of biographies to steal. Of course, in 1992 Jerry Brown, the Progressive California governor, supported a 13 percent flat Federal Income Tax (including the Social Security tax) so...people change (or grow, in the case of a Progressive).

During his first term, the DC crowd actively worked to frame Donald Trump as a Russian spy, the type of thing horrible people do. DC is full of awful people. It attracts manipulative, self-dealing sociopaths -- and that's just the journalists. I don't expect it to improve. But I'll vote for The Donald anyways.

The Inditments should have been Leaked

The Trump indictments about mishandling classified material should have been classified as Ultra top-secret and then leaked to the New York Times. The source would remain anonymous. This person is not authorized to mishandle these top-secret documents about mishandling top-secret documents. You see, the undercover source leaked the documents to an undercover reporter who was under the same cover and in the same bed. As part of the resulting brouhaha, dotGov throws a big investigation to find the culprit who's not authorized to mishandle the classified material about mishandling classified material. The years-long investigation will go nowhere because why would it. Meanwhile, the New York Times will editorialize about how Trump mishandled documents he had previously declassified and kept locked up.

Of course, some secrets should be kept secret. For instance, the secret that Joe Biden is corrupt. This is purely a "need to know," and only the people actually paying the bribes (and enabling officials and journalists) need to know. So when President Trump's Ultra top-secret phone call with Ukrainian President Zelensky -- where Biden's corruption was touched on -- was leaked by someone not authorized to leak it, Trump was impeached. Obviously, Trump had no "need to know" of Biden's corruption. In any case, it was the best five-million Ukraine ever spent.  It's pay to play -- with HIMARS.

When Biden announced his Presidential bid not long after Trump took office, I said it was meant to keep corruption indictments at bay.  In 2017 even the mainstream media was reporting on his corruption as Vice President. Declaring his candidacy as the Democratic Party hopeful was a way to shut them up and get the "respected media" to actively suppress a story that would cast the entire Democratic party in a bad light. So I don't think Dr. Jill will allow Biden to gracefully bow out after one term and give up this anti-indictment superpower.

How Reagan Ruined Everything

Fast-talking lawyer Leeja Miller makes the case against Ronnie. It's not the massive concentration of power in Washington D.C. that's the problem: it's the partial slowdown to that process caused by RR. It reminds me of how the Democrats successfully ran against Herbert Hoover for fifty years. Trying the same trick with Reagan might not work as well.

Lawyers concentrate on winning the argument rather than solving the problem, because by winning the argument they have solved the problem -- their problem, which is winning the argument. Unfortunately, despite all the argument-winning, the crisis persists -- an underfunded and underpowered government sector.

I remember when the Federal government had to function on a meager nine-hundred billion dollars a year -- no wonder it couldn't make everything affordable in a sustainable manner! It was argued that by increasing that amount to a mere one trillion (a "more" that actually sounds like "less") we would solve this persistent funding shortfall. But did it? No! Now some people actually argue that seven trillion a year should be enough (that's 7,000 billion dollars). Really? With so much persistent want in the country (especially among lawyers and lobbyists), how will that solve the problem? To hell with trickle-down! I'm for tinkle-upon economics! Who doesn't want to feel that warm flow of federal dollars running down their back?

Poor Wandering Wonderer -- True Love Built on Lies.

Act II, Scene 1, of the Prodigals of Penance. Act I, Scene 1, is here.

I continue my foray into Comic Lite-Opera Reality. The work is now the attempted merger of Hamlet and Blazing Saddles (with a bit of Pinocchio thrown in), done in the spirit of Gilbert and Sullivan! Below, Sad Poppins mentions the Piltdown Man, an evolutionary "missing link" bone hoax that dragged on for 40 years. Hamlet sings of the Kinsey Report, a human sexuality study so flawed that even Wikipedia has a hard time defending it.

The story so far: The World Leaders and hangers-on have danced offstage. Hamlet Omlet and Sad Poppins are about to further their relationship. Hamlet has uncovered many flaws in the "science" funded by Artful Shortseller, the world's richest man. He senses the real purpose of his grant is to "paper over" the inadequacies he's found. Sad Poppins feels it would be best if he fulfills his role and, what the heck, just cash the check.

ACT II, SCENE 1: Poor Wandering Wonderer.

(Shrotseller's Estate: SAD POPPINS stands alone in the garden. HAMLET OMLET enters, walking in a seeming trance.)

HAMLET OMLET

They've created such a racket,

I can hardly work.

And my work...is hardly...worth it.

SAD POPPINS (watching him, sings)

Poor Wandering Wonderer

Wondering Where to Wan-der!

You don't think like the rest.

Your head is a mess,

So full of thoughts --

They drip out like snot...

(approaches Hamlet)

You are the studier of studies.

Who studies, the studies, in Shortseller's study.

Your task is incomplete--

HAMLET OMLET

Like rain turning to sleet.

(steps towards her)

And you're the activist child.

The bold little scold,

With the winning frown.

SAD

I thought the world would let me down.

The Earth, not be around.

But as I've grown

(shows herself off a bit)

Into my own --

I found it really weird!

The planet, you see, is still here!

HAMLET OMLET

By eliminating the Earth,

With all its dirt,

We could eliminate our fears.

(thoughtfully, strolling)

Or we could simply go extinct,

And no longer have to think.

SAD POPPINS (following)

Poor Wandering Wonderer

Wondering Where to Wan-der.

You don't think like the rest.

Your head is a mess.

So full of thoughts

They drip out like snot.

HAMLET OMLET(distressed)

I simply cannot lie.

It is just too hard to disguise.

When I fabricate,

Right out of the gate,

(indicates his groin area)

It gets hard!

As the tension goes up,

My ha-ha-heart thumps!

(pounds his chest)

The blood in my veins

Feels the added strain.

The blood my heart pumps 

Flows into my consider-able stump!

 

And it grows, grows, grows --

Like some elongated nose,

Or an acorn into an oak.

It happens at a stroke!

It's not just unseemly, you see,

But po-tential-ly!

Most un-semen-ly...

(walks)

Yes, I'm stilted...

By this pilted...

Woody, wood-pecker.

SAD POPPINS (injects)

Like Pinocchio in a pinch.

Or, the Pilt-down Man!

A "find" that was a Scientific Scam -- 

With the wrong bone

In the wrong place:

A most potent -- disgrace. 

HAMLET OMLET

Lying's not a sport,

Like some Kinsey Report.

Whenever I lie,

(indicates his groin, distressed)

It gets hard against my fly!

I can't lie, I can't lie, I can't lie.

(walks)

SAD POPPINS

Oh, Poor Wandering Wonderer,

Woody in a wood of lies!

I am sorry for you!

'Cause your own sorrow won't do.

You don't think like the rest.

Your head's such a mess.

So full of thoughts,

They drip out like snot!

(thinks, taps his shoulder)

If only you were a woman.

The problem with your wood

Would disappear!

If only you could,

Eliminate the wood!

HAMLET OMLET

That sounds fantastic,

but just...a little...drastic.

SAD POPPINS (agrees)

Sub-optimal, yes,

But if you just wore a dress...

You could easily skirt the truth.

Or turn your back,

On in-convenient facts.

But still...

HAMLET OMLET

I'll wear a kilt!

I could present an address...

In a kilt, not a dress.

I could turn my back,

As I speak with great tact,

Over...my...shoulder?

SAD POPPINS

Here's an act -- that's bolder.

(Takes his hand)

Simply lie with me!

If you lie with me,

Your lies will be disguised, by me!

You simply pretend

We're in love, without end!

In Love with a fire,

Of burning -- lustful desire.

And: 

No one will be the wiser.

We could lie, lie, lie, together.

No one would know any better.

 

HAMLET OMLET(confused)

In truth, I am getting woody.

I should return to my studies.

I could be me-too'ed

Because I am woody for you...

I really can't lie...

As I look into your -- lovely, eyes...

(turns)

But I fear my career --

Could dissolve in your tears.

(walks away)

SAD POPPINS (follows him)

Poor wandering woody one!

What wonderous lies lie ahead!

Don't fear for your career.

You'll be a believable steer, 

If you lie, lie, lie -- with me.

(Sounds from off stages)

DANCING BANKERS

Hrumph, Hrumph -- Hrumph, Hrumph, Hrumph.

SAD POPPINS

You cannot stay.

Artful Shortseller

Is on his way.

We'll meet after dark.

HAMLET OMLET

And wonderful lies

We can con-cock!

Con-con, concoct. 

(As Hamlet Omlet leaves, Artful Shortseller enters).

ART SHORTSELLER (to the audience)

He's such a poor liar.

He needs to retire.

My estate is built

On a house of cards.

One jilt from that joker...

And...

 

Oh, forsooth and forsaken!

My empire shaken!

Imagine, a jerk like that,

Bringing about my total collapse!

I suppose he would say,

He means well, OK.

Well, I have a "mean well"

For him.

(maniacal laugh, steps to the side for...)

DANCING BANKERS (Marching on stage)

Hrumph, Hrumph -- Hrumph, Hrumph, Hrumph.

ART

Now the Bankers want their say.

They mean well, too,

It should be a tattoo. 

Let them implore.

I'll ignore.

ACT II SCENE 2

(The Central Banker leads The Dancing Bankers on stage. They are dressed for the Beach. The Central Banker gets a little rough treatment from the others. He's shoved to center stage.)

CENTRAL BANKER (addresses the audience)

This is The World Conference...

That will Solve...

Your Problems...

In One Foul Swipe.

(speaks clearly)

You see, all your problems are ours;

All our problems are yours.

And you are our problem.

(Indicates the surroundings) 

We're at the home 

Of the World's Richest man.

Artful Shortseller's estate, Eden!

 

DANCING BANKERS (An echoing murmur)

Eden, Eden, Eden...

 

CENTRAL BANKER 

It's his own state!

An island all its own.

An island that he owns. Eden.

 

DANCING BANKERS

Eden, Eden, Eden...

 

CENTRAL BANKER

I'm the Central Banker,
I don't get many thanks
When the other banks

(indicates the others)

Need a spank:
That Great Current of Currency,
Upon which they depend --
Is Currently Curtailed!
If not totally at an end. 
It flowed through their vaults
And its lack, now felt, is my fault

  

(The band picks up with a thumping, almost pounding, beat. The Dancing Bankers surround the Central Banker. They sing to the tune of Sgt. Peppers Lonely Hearts Club Band)

World Class Dancing, Banker Band

THE DANCING BANKERS (To the central banker, with loud reproach)

It was a hundred years ago!

When you really did steal the show!

People's money was never the same,

As you played your curren-cy game.

When interest rates you amend

To bring easy money to an end... 

After we've done so much good,

By gutting their neighborhoods!

We're the World Class Dancing, Banker Band!

CENTRAL BANKER (to the audience)

Their Animal Spirits were on a lark,

But the funny-money, once in "drive,"

Is now in "park."

THE DANCING BANKERS (Explaining)

We're good citizens of the World!

With finances in a swirl.

Speculators cause much pain,

As their loans go down the drain.

So now we're il-liquid.

Lacking the reserves, we should...

(to the central banker)

So we want you to understand,

We'd like you to give a hand...

To the Empty Pockets, Bankster, Bah-an-d!

 

CENTRAL BANKER

They want to restart the game.

With me providing the gains...

a-gain.

The losses we'll spread about,

Like lots of vacant shops. 

(The Dancing Bankers push the Central Banker out of the way.)

CENTRAL BANKER

Don't Panic at the Picnic!

(The orchestra is back to horn tooting)

DANCING BANKERS (Pace quickens, to the Audience, upset)

With those problems, you're on your own!

So kindly get off the phone!

We're awfully short of cash!

We're bankers who've lost their stash!

Our institution's got the runs!

It's playing havoc with the sums!

...um...um...um-m-m.

 

 (A female banker sweetly changes the tune)

You're such love-ly depositors --

You really are our kind --

You're such love-ly depositors,

Sit back and watch your fortune grow!

Sit back and watch it grow!

 

 (The rest return to firm declarations)

Your bankruptcy's on us!

But our Bankruptcy's on you!

We're whales too big to fail!

So you have to cover our tail!

 

( Pause, as the female banket again changes the tune)

You're such lovely homeowners,

With mortgages to fill.

We'd like to take your homes with us.

We'd love to take your homes!

 

 (The rest)

Yes, we'd rather issue demands

But really do need a hand!

So we'll issue our appeal,

To the man who really steals...

The show, when you have to show!

The assets that cover your ass!

We've come to find him here!

Our savior of the year --

(slowly, with begging hands)

Art...ful...Short...sell-er...

(They trail off...as the orchestra changes tempo to blues/jazz, with snare drums. The Central Banker moves to center stage. He puts his sunglasses on and snaps his fingers. Sings to the tune of Mack the Knife.)

The Shortseller Song

CENTRAL BANKER (His best Bobby Darin Blues)

Oh, Financial sharks,

Prowl the seas, babes.

And they'll feed in --

Market waves.

They have such teeth -- dear!

If you could see them!

They're ru-by, ruby-red.

 

When red ink's spilled

By Cor-po-rate shills--

My-little-darlings don't-you-know!

So much gore is,

On the market floor.

But on Shortseller, there's not the stink, babe

Of all...your -- all your red ink!

Your pension fund --

So you think, dears --

Bought juicy steaks,

With your stake!

Till Artful wields his -- skillful scalpel.

Leaving bare bones, upon your plate.

(Art enters and marches to center stage. Exudes calm as the Central Banker slinks off)

DANCING BANKERS

Artful, Artful, Artful...

The Mean Well Song

ART (he brings the tempo down)

There's no reason for alarm.

Every reason, to be calm.

We're in the eye of every storm,

And here, calm is the norm.

Your problem is but a pimple.

The solution is -- quite simple! 

 (Sways as he sings)

Just mean well, if you mean well,
Then everything will seem well!
If you mean well, then you'll be well,
No one will be mean to you!
If you mean well in all that you do.
They'll never blame you--
When they've been royally screwed...

If you're mean, mean, mean,

You want to be seen as -- well meaning.

 

DANCING BANKERS (With relief)

They can't attack good intentions.

Even when these intentions are...

An...invention.

(swaying while figuring it out) 

If it seems...well,

Like we mean well,

Then the middling mean...that's sits inbetween,

The well-off...and the off-well...

Will think that we're just swell.

(as they dance off-stage)

When we're mean-mean-mean,

No matter how mean we may seem...

If we're all called well-meaning,

Well meaning is how we'll be seeming!

 

ART (calls after them)

Mean-well in all your deeds!

(laughs, to the audience)

For the mean-well

Is a deep well, indeed!

(laughs maniacally)

END OF SCENE

 

The Winner of the 2024 US Presidential Election Is...

Peter Zeihan makes his prediction for 2024 and he sees a rematch between Trump and Biden with a Biden win because swing voters such as Peter will go for the Democrats.

In 2016 I did not want Trump to get the nomination (I thought he was a moderate Democrat) but I told friends that the media did. By attacking Trump they could raise his numbers among the Republican base that hates the left-leaning media.  Meanwhile, their attacks would turn Peter Zeihan against Trump for the general election, ushering in large Democratic majorities. There weren't enough Peters, so it didn't quite work out that way.

There is an insider/outsider dynamic in presidential races -- which is why governors often make good candidates. In 2016 Trump was an outsider. In 2020 he stood onstage with a bunch of Washington insiders while the nation closed down -- plus it's hard for any president to escape responsibility for things that go wrong, even if it's caused by his political enemies (ie, mostly peaceful riots, etc).

For 2024 we see the media and the Democrats running the 2016 strategy. They've turned the race into the quintessential outsider running against the quintessential insider. The American people face only one political question: do you want everything in the nation run by a selected group of people in Washington D.C., plus their partners on  Wallstreet, in Silicon Valley, and that whole Hollywood/Davos globalist "you will own nothing and be happy or else" community.  I call this result "feudalism with the right people in charge." All the other issues are there to disguise that central issue. If Trump and the Republicans stay focused on that one question, they stand an excellent chance.

Joe Biden's Amjail Railroad

In the days of the United Soviet SOCIALIST Republic, the Bolshevik Socialists used slave labor in the Gulag Archipelago, a system of camps spread throughout the nation. In his book, Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn wrote of the slave recruitment process. They'd grab you, put you in solitary confinement in quite uncomfortable conditions,  deprive you of sleep, and interrogate you relentlessly. They'd get you to confess to something you didn't do or say that seemed minor, not worth jail time. It would go on from there, as your interrogator built his case. Soon you would be implicating friends and relatives (who were undergoing similar treatment and involving you in their "confessions"). In this manner, the NKVD met its ambitious targets (Vlad the Invader joined the KGB as a young man -- the NKVD's successor). Soon you, and pretty much everyone you knew, would be on your way to a Slave Labor camp where you would be worked to death. Millions of slaves were "recruited" in this manner.

In his analysis of this system, Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn gave the following advice: Never Confess.

I've noticed how much of the "progressive" US media regards George Orwell's Nineteen Eighty-Four as a how-to manual, rather than a cautionary tale.  Similarly, the Department of Justice under the progressives seems to consult the Gulag Archipelago for tips. A few years ago, "the process was the punishment" -- they'd target opposition figures with largely bogus accusations to destroy their reputation and force them to spend their savings and equity in their homes on legal fees. Nowadays, the punishing process is followed by -- punishment.

Consider the case of Chansley Gains, the so-called QAnon Shaman. He was present at the Jan. 6, 2021 riot at the US Capitol. When the "January Sixth Select House Committee" began its hearing I happened to be talking to a progressive friend on the phone and she told me she was watching. I said, "The Democrats have finally met a riot they didn't like."  I was referring to all the riots that occurred the previous summer that the Democrats seemed to be OK with. She was upset by this remark, even though I termed it a riot, not a "mostly peaceful demonstration that destroyed the business district."

Now we find out that Chansley, who spent years in prison, was escorted around the Capitol that day by the Capitol Police (who worked for Nancy Pelosi at the time) and, at one point, even called on the Demonstrators to go home. The Democrat Chairman of the Committee, Representative Bennie Thompson, said he hadn't seen the video. What? The hearing went on forever and he hadn't seen the video? I guess "Plausible Deniability," no matter how implausible, is still Plausible down in D.C.

Joe Biden may ride the Amtrak rails, but a lot of folks are being Amjail railroaded on his watch.

Does Credit Expansion lead to Waist Expansion or Waste Expansion?

Jeff Snider at EuroDollar Univesity discusses the Chinese Stimulant that ain't fentanyl -- increased availability of Bank Credit.

Back in the 1980's I read that the Soviet Union had the highest rate of capital investment in the world and on the whole (or rather, "hole"), that investment produced a negative return -- requiring more investment. I read that and thought, "Gee, that can't be good." I had the picture of being on a treadmill and running to stay in place but the treadmill speeds up so, in the end, you're running so you'll fall behind slower. In such a scenario, collapsing from exhaustion seems the logical outcome.

In "The Rise and Decline of Nations: Economic Growth, Stagflation, and Social Rigidities," Mancur Olson didn't discuss the credit markets so much as the "credit to" markets. In his view, the growth of self-dealing special interest groups in an otherwise growing economy produces economic sclerosis that leads to failure. The CCP is a collection of self-dealing special interest groups. Its near collapse during Mao's Cultural Revolution allowed a multi-decade spurt in economic development. Its reemergence as society's "guiding force" will likely herald its decline.

We face a similar danger in the good ol' USA. It's not the dealings of the Fed that will determine our economic future so much as the self-dealing of a web of special interests and influence peddlers I call "The Crony Class." Are they anti-climate change or pro their control of the nation's resources -- and do they see a difference? Crony class interests require a lot of lying-and-believing at the same time. ESG, anyone?

Nevermind the Gap

There's a gap in the chart! Jeff Snider at Eurodollar University has a video where he discusses "real personal income excluding transfer receipts" (think government handouts), which fell "off trend" in 2020 and hasn't recovered. Transfer payments backfilled the gap for a time. Here's his chart:

I fear the "off-trend" has become the new trend. Perhaps people in 2020 were rioting for the wrong reason.

I blame "Cronny Class Consciousness" and the governing philosophy of "Feudalism with the Right People in Charge" for the developing economic malaise.

At its center, the Crony Class consists of politicians, hacks, bureaucrats, and those who acquire power through their ability to influence government action -- the lawyer, lobbyist, and dark-money crowd. This group took to heart the advice of Scarface, "first you get the power, then you get the money, then you get the girl." Confusingly, we now have to add the lawyer/lobbyist girls who want to be "the man" while still blaming "the man" when the man is actually, you know, a man.

The outer ring includes those who benefit from government action, such as corporations that fear bureaucratic overreach or seek government favor or the education establishment which devours government resources while avoiding societal accountability. To this add the legions of minions whose livelihoods depend on promoting Crony Class Interests, such as MSM Journalists (not to be confused with reporters), aspiring academics (not to be confused with actual scientists), and "house experts" (not to be confused with people who know what the hell they are talking about). The tentacles of this class reach far and wide, and gives the appearance of "Nerds working for Sociopaths."

"Crony Class Consciousness" allows them to act as a unit to protect class interest with a minimum of actual coordination. They framed Donal Trump (a minor threat) as a Russian agent for three years, knowing it was bunkum from day one. When it no longer played, the media Emily Litellas said, "never mind," and moved on to the next set of feeble accusations class members are required to promote. Objectively, these are the actions of horrible people. Subjectively, they have their reasons. This beast is hungry and needs to be fed. Those gaps in the charts are just the start.

"Feudalism with the Right People in Charge," says the rulers should come from an accredited, pseudo-intellectual caste (the true nobility of the mind), not a military one. The philosophy provides the justification for the rule of the Crony Class (i.e. Climate Change requires their control of resources) and the rationale for keeping their "expert" descendants in charge (having a lot of kids -- which will expand family contacts in an influence-peddling system -- is frowned upon). Diversity-Equity-Inclusion is sold as the ability to include but is actually the power to exclude. Everyone should get in their place and stay there. Mind the Queue.

It's Powerful Stuff

Some years ago I started doing commentary on current events through the use of musical comedy. Unfortunately, it led to uncontrolled weeping so I stopped. Still, I like putting my thoughts in song (yes, song!), and here is my latest attempt. Think Punk Rock. Starts sweet, ends loud.

Clerk Power

I know you think I'm heaven sent

The greatest hope your world presents.

Your situation's critical

But to me you're typical.

Bad vibrations,

In creation.

Alienation

fills the nation.

Check the box, don't pout!

Just fill -- your forms out.

We must know you. Or we'll no you.
Yes, we know you. And will no you.
Don't break the mold. It fits you.
That moldy mold? Is for you.
Clerk Power. Clerk Power.

I got you feeling desperate

The needs you have are barely met.

But leave no blanks upon the form,

Always behave within the norm.

I'll estrange you.

Rearrange you.

Bad vibrations

Fill creation.

Alienation,

throughout the nation.

I will serve you,

On a platter.

Does it matter? Do you matter?

Clerk Power! Clerk Power!

Clerk Power! Clerk Power!

I know you think I'm heaven sent

The greatest chance your world presents.

But before solutions are devised
All interviews must be reprized.

I'll estrange you!

Rearrange you!

Take your measure?

At my pleasure!

Fill the forms out.

Does it fit now?

Have a cow, now?

Don't act crazy!

Take a nap now.

Don't be lazy!

Or outrageous

It's contagious!

Here to serve you,

On a platter.

Does it matter? Does it matter?
Don't you matter? Do you matter?

Clerk Power! Clerk Power! Clerk Power!

Whew. I was shouting a bit much at the end there. Calm. Down. When did the slogan All Power to the People become All Power to the Clerks?  When the people shouting "All Power to the People" became clerks.

With apologies to Kurt Cobain.

The Noble Much Obliged

This was a comment I left at the The Belmont Club.

In a feudal system, the military leaders that conquer a region become the new aristocracy. In Western Europe's recent wars, the conquering Military was not aristocratic or European. Nor was it interested in holding the reins of power, but did protect those who would pick the reins up. This has allowed a new aristocratic system to evolve.

Because after the last century's wars, it was the clerks of Europe (sometimes confused with intellectuals) who emerged triumphant. Their means of control are not martial but material in nature (basically, the disposition of taxes in a system of political "group" patronage). This allows women to acquire positions of great power without having to work through the male family line. In this system, power grows from an inked rubber stamp, flowery prose, poisoned logic, and a purple ribbon. In this (is it proper to say?) women are the equal of men.

Europe now develops into a "Clerical aristocracy" with de facto primogeniture at its center. In an emerging static system of hierarchy (National and European), the most prepared child of either sex will inherit a position of similar prestige to that of the parents. The guaranteed inheritance is not (yet) total and not (yet) explicit.

In a martial aristocracy the "militarists" control, with some difficulty, the clerks. It is more essential that the clerical aristocrats control the military. In both systems, the Aristocracy wants to control the "guns" and keep them out of the hands of the commoners (unless especially trusted and favored). But not so much out of the hands of the "healthy" criminal class (those uninterested in attacking the aristocracy). Aristocrats look at healthy criminals as competitors and, at times, allies in the exploitation of commoners.

The Noble clerks perpetuate their ruling class by properly designing the education and testing system so that the "class favorites" are from the favored class. Selection from this "merit pool" would be influenced by family connections -- with the candidates culled as they are promoted up the ranks.

In such an emergent system having more than two children would be considered suspect. You could argue the third was an accident. But the fourth would constitute a kind of rebellion, since the promotion of your brood will leave fewer choice positions for the "child" of others. This "gang of siblings" could become bandits grabbing control of bureaucratic turf. As a matter of "noble" self-defense, they would be held back.

A clerical aristocracy would not be wealth creators but wealth administrators. The multiplication of social programs would be accompanied by a multiplication of noble positions (with squires and yeoman attached) and a cohort of dependent clients. The nobles would be highly suspicious of freewheeling capitalism since it provides an independent route to status and prestige. Besides, who knows where those free wheels are going to go a-wheeling? The Noble clerks sell free lunches, and their little hot dog stand might get knocked over. The free lunch is a con, of course, but it is also a living for the proprietor and his Noble patron.

The (ideally unarmed) commoners would be dependent on this system even as they became cynical about it. They see that children, as a class, are an excuse for the multiplication of Noble positions -- and an excuse for higher taxes. This turns their own immediate descendants into a class enemy. Also, in a static society, it makes sense to concentrate your limited influence on preparing and marketing one child to achieve one low-level clerical position -- a position from which the child can climb the greased pole and establish a clerical line.

But the "Nobles" need a population that the domesticated commoners are not producing. One solution is to import them -- but in a manner where they will provide additional Noble positions (meaning additional expenditures to the "department" and, ideally, tax revenues to the government) while not competing for those positions. The Nobility does not need a second generation of honor students from their immigrant class -- quite the opposite. Keeping them separate from the native commoners and engendering mutual hostility between them is "Maintaining an Aristocracy 101." They put that "Marxist dialectic" they all studied to work -- in reverse.

What is the way forward?

1. Make the new Aristocracy explicit, along with a new Chivalric Code. Only one, or at most two, noble children continue the clerical line. Lesser children enter a class of lower clerical gentry. Or they can be married into the class of (properly regulated, constrained, and most of all administered) business people. This will strengthen a system of family alliances and make all dependent on the "new chivalry."

2. Recognize that the system is exploitive of future generations and cut the commoner parents into the deal. This can be done by selling new infants a reverse "savings bond" where the parents keep the money. Right now only the Nobles profit from the immediate entry of a new baby into "the system." With this bond, commoners will get a monthly stipend for each child they have. The children will begin paying the bond back when they reach 22. This will be a clear profit for the first generation of commoner parents. The second generation would have to perpetuate the system to get their money back. If they don't have children they will live in poverty even worse than what they are already experiencing (we are not designing a system that allows people to thrive -- only one that pretends to).

Perhaps the Swedes can lead the way here. US to follow.