West Winging It

FULL Body Language Analysis of Trump and Zelenskyy's MELTDOWN

During the turn of the Century, The West Wing was a popular political Comedy/Drama about the Presidency of the United States of America. It was fiction, so the progressive president (Martin Sheen) could come out looking a little better and his conservative foes a little worse than might be the case in, say, the real world.

President Zelensky of Ukraine started his political life with a similar program. You get to write the script. The clever things you say and do ultimately work out in your favor -- regardless of the mid-show hilarious hiccups. Unfortunately, starring in a "West Wing" style show is poor training for sitting in the almost sacred setting (for most Americans) of the West Wing Oval Office while dealing with President Donald Trump. During that meeting, he wanted commitments from Trump in public, in front of the world, that he couldn't get in private. Unfortunately, Zelensky wasn't writing the script.

Abraham Lincoln, during the Dark Days of the Civil War, said, "We must disenthrall ourselves." I read that as a fourteen-year-old boy and wondered what "disenthrall" meant.  To be enthralled was to be emotionally caught up in a book or a movie or a love affair. So, to "disenthrall" means to disengage your emotions and try to look at the situation you are in objectively. President Zelensky was not capable of doing that. Indeed, he wanted to "enthrall" Donald Trump and perhaps everyone else.

His inability to view the world objectively has set him up for failure. Hopefully, he will leave the scene soon and accept the gratitude of his grateful nation before that turns to loathing.

By and large, commentators assume that if Kamala Harris were President, the largess towards Ukraine would continue. Why? It was Biden's administration that pushed the war, largely as a part of their anti-Putin morality play (See Ukraine's Color Revolution, Hunter and Burisima, Trump's first impeachment, etc.). Democrats are the party of Secretary of State Hilary Clinton's "Russia-US Reset Button" (this after Russia took part of Georgia -- not the US state). After that little show, Putin grabbed Crimea and eastern Ukraine, and Obama shrugged. In its first days in 2021, the Biden Administration stopped the arm shipments to Ukraine that Trump began (they wanted to engage with Russia diplomatically). That was like ringing the lunch bell for Vladimar Putin. He geared up for war, not diplomacy.

If Harris had won on Nov. 5, the American Media would have started the distancing process on Nov 6. It would be time for "a new look." It would go on from there, and it would be ugly. There would be story after story of Ukrainian corruption. Many of these stories might actually be true (truth is not a priority in a political operation). Why would this happen? Because our involvement in the War in Ukraine is a political loser. Why are the "experts," who shrugged off the Crimea invasion when they were in power, war hawks now? Why did they manipulate Zelensky into confronting Trump in the Oval office to effectively repudiate the very agreement he was there to sign? It's part of the political operation. They want to regain power. Blowing up the peace deal hurts Trump and helps them. Any leader who can "disenthrall himself" would see that and avoid the trap.

Zelensky did confirm what I wrote about in the Post "Ukraine's Thriving Enterprise." He said the Ukrainian people are actually doing all right despite the hardships of war. This is why Trump is offering them an alternative prosperous future. We can get rare earths from our 51st state -- Greenland, Canada, maybe Cuba. Who wants to be first?

Z-mania

 Breaking: President Trump and VP Vance Spar with Zelensky in the Oval Office

In the past, the US made agreements with Joseph Stalin, Breshnev, and Mao -- but Zelensky warns the US about making a deal with Putin. He also tells JD Vance that his intelligence breifings are crap (which may be the case -- unless they are focused on LGBTQ matters). But hey, Z, Marco Rubio knows his dictators.

By lecturing on Putin's untrustworthiness, Zelensky wanted Trump to give a public "reassurance" that could be spun into a security guarantee. It blew up in his face.

Europeans don't understand the US. Trump went way out on a limb for Ukraine. His supporters -- you know, the people who got him elected -- oppose massive aid for Ukraine, and they certainly don't want US corporations economically entwinded there (and their employees being human shields in the border lands). Many are outright hostile to our involvement, which goes back to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's first Trump impeachment over that "perfect Ukrainian phone call" -- to Zelensky, as fate would have it.

Now, European "intellectuals" try to score "we stand with Ukraine" debating points after Zelensky wants to tell the US who it can negotiate with. What's the reaction of most Americans to all this? Fine, it's your problem now.

Zelensky played a leader on TV, where he got to write the script and the clever ending. Well, not today. Today he screwed the pooch. The American people will never support a forever war in the middle of Eurasia. Trump went further with this deal than is politically wise.

Ukraine's Thriving Enterprise

 Putin makes huge mistake as Trump’s comments backfire | Former senior advisor to Zelenskyy

First, non-native speakers of "American" need to know that "Being in the Disinformation Space" is a synonym for "Shut up, you ignorant fool." So, if the Z-man meant to say that to the President, well, he did. Trump probably gained another million supporters as a result. 

Let's assume Ukraine in the 2020s is not a corrupt Banna Republic, but rather a "poor but honest" nation. They don't want to live under Russian domination (who would?). Their European neighbors need to keep an expansionist Russia from their borders -- in fact, all of NATO shares that interest. As a result, this "Poor but Honest" nation receives massive amounts of aid for its war effort.  Soon, the decent people of this honest nation are employed in industries and businesses whose continued prosperity depends on continued war. Career prospects and promotions become dependent on continued war. The politicians in control have a support network dependent on divvied-up war aid. Would the decent people of this poor but honest nation lean toward the most favorable war aims, even if this means further fighting? Because, yes, while they are decent, they are also human.

Of course, not every person in every nation is decent. Corrupt officials and fraudulent businesses can be found everywhere. Realistically, "Corrupt Banna Republic" is a more accurate descriptor of Ukraine's ruling class -- which is more Kleptocratic than Aristocratic. Unsurprisingly, much of the massive infusion of aid is stolen or misallocated. Peace becomes a threat to prosperity. To get Ukraine on board the "peace train," the rulers need to see the war "gravy train" pulling onto the siding. Promises of peacetime opportunities for graft will, no doubt, be required. Their cooperation cannot be bought, but perhaps it can be rented.

While Ukraine's rulers may face a (financial) loss with the end of fighting, Russia's rulers have much to gain. The ending of sanctions and the unfreezing of assets, for instance. Is it possible that Trumps negotiators sensed a stubborness in Ukraine that was lacking in their discussions with the Russians?

 

He could have implicated Tucker, too

I recommend watching Taras Bulba, the 1962 movie based on Gogol's novel, before watching Vladimir Putin's interview with Tucker Carlson. He begins with a History lesson that is more of a his-story lesson. The movie is more entertaining and only a little longer. Tony Curtis plays a Cossack who grew up in Brooklyn, New York. 

Illustration for the novel by Pyotr Sokolov, 1861

Das Flick

Here is how Vladimir should have started his presentation:

"Tucker, Donald Trump really is my puppet in the USA. Unfortunately, he lost his value due to the heroic efforts of Hillary Clinton, the Obama Administration, and the New York Times. We recruited him in High School, and our entire investment in him went down the drain!

"Also, I want to thank you, Tucker, personally, for your help in our massive disinformation campaigns. You are worth your weight in gold, my friend. But instead of gold, you'll get rubles. I hear the Chinese like them."

What a missed opportunity! If he gave that little speech, he would be hailed as a great truth-teller. Then the Davos crowd would give him Ukraine, they'd be so happy. Oh, well.

The Material is there, but is the Heart of Russia Willing?

The Ukraine War & the Battle of Avdiivka || Peter Zeihan

Will Putin ever tire of his War of Attrition?

Time was the Peasants would have four or five kids expecting to lose a few to one or two of the four horsemen.  When you have one son the calculations change.  If they are drawing heavily from the minority populations -- who might not be pleased by that approach -- and run out of convicts, they may find that war of attrition has become a threat to the regime -- though stopping so far short of the mark is not necessarily the better option.

Thanks to Putin, many of the folks who wanted the Soviet Union to stay together now want the Russian Federation to fall apart. If China gets Vladivostok -- which they claim -- then the US should take the Kamchatka Peninsula and the tiny bit of Russia that lies to the north of it and some of those islands to the south (we can make it all a National Park).

Bloody War Catch-up

 And Now We Return to Our Regularly Scheduled Program (Ukraine War Updates)

Peter Zeihan looks at Ukraine's counteroffensive as it enters its fourth week.

When Putin launched his invasion, I didn't expect it to go well because the iron law of armed conflict is that wars are easier to start than to stop -- although there are notable exceptions to the rule.

In the 1930s, Ukrainians were "starved into submission" by Moscow (Putin's a veteran of the "security service" that carried out that particular genocide). They suffered rough treatment immediately before and after WWII -- during which large armies engaged in brutal combat rolled over the area twice. As a result, Ukrainians could expect a Russian victory to be followed by a heavy hand holding a mallet.

Because of Moscow's previous rule over the country, numerous fifth columnists were in place (the Russian thrust out of Crimea went surprisingly well). As the effort stalled, the worm -- and the Ukranian nation -- turned.

Unfortunately, Russia grabbed a lot of territories, and taking it back is a long and bloody process, even with Western Military aid -- a fraction of which, delivered before the invasion, would likely have prevented it.

Limp Noodle

Prigozhin has called off his march on Moscow. Previously, I wrote that Noodles Romanov wanted to become Tsar Romanov.  But now he's just all wet.

He should stay away from windows and swimming pools. I suggest a world tour -- make that an anonymous would tour after plastic surgery.

They done-gone crossed the Don.

Update: This was a quick take on Pregozhin's mutiny. Interestingly, he didn't follow the oldest advice in politics: when you strike at the King, kill him.

Suddenly, Ukraine against Russia is Ukraine against a Russia that's against itself, as the recent uncivil arguments among military leaders turn to civil war.

Someone has done-gone crossed the Don -- both the "Rubicon" River Don and the Don of the top Russian crime family. Yevgeny Prigozhin has launched his Wagner group at the throat of his Godfather, Vlad-the-invader. Maybe Putin putting this "criminal cook" at the head of a powerful, well-armed, independent, and ruthless military organization was a bad idea. Or a good one, depending on your point of view.

"Tsar" is the Russian form of Caesar and Prigozhin is doing a Juilius -- except Julius Caesar won his wars before he crossed the Rubicon and marched on Rome. Yevgeny behaves like he's Noodles Romanov but aims to become a Tsar Romanov -- successor to Putin the Terrible. I anticipate the Male Heirs of any Prigozhin era will be male errors. OK, enough with the puns.  

The conflict between Prigozhin and the rest of the Crime Family went on a slow boil last year. The Ukrainians holding on to the City of Bakhmut turned up the heat as the slaughter progressed. At first, I thought the dispute with the Defense Minister was contrived but it became so public I soon believed it was real. 

Could we see a repeat of the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk of a century ago? Aspiring Tsar Vladimir Lenin relinquished much of the Russian Empire to exit World War One and launch his Communist Red Army at the Bourgeoisie Whites in a bloody civil war. By announcing the withdrawal of Russian forces in Ukraine to the 2/22/2022 lines, Putin could free up troops to come at the Wagners from the rear while splitting NATO into "war-continuing" and "peace-declaring" camps. He should do this now while offering some sort of joint military guarantees for a semi-autonomous Crimea that the West -- if not Ukraine -- will quickly accept.

Interestingly, Prigozhin made a statement attacking the premise of the invasion of Ukraine that could well be a bid for support from NATO countries. If Putin doesn't act, Prigozhin may get it. The offer of a quick end to sanctions by the West in return for withdrawal to the 1991 borders with Ukraine would help Wagner Inc. win the support of the Russian elites.

The West will want a quick settlement here, if possible. A prolonged Civil War in Russia could quickly spread throughout central Asia and beyond.

Wagner is Going to Moscow.

Blackrock of Ages, Cleave Ukraine?

War, Good Lord! What is it good for? Well, that depends on the meaning of the word "good."

The Stoic over at Stoic Finance discusses the involvement of Blackrock in Ukraine. He provides a compact overview of both the Ukraine war and Blackrock. He claims he doesn't think Blackrock's overall intentions are good or evil but his presentation leans -- evil.

We should be careful not to credit malevolence to actions that can be explained by incompetence. Early on, the Biden administration canceled the "lethal" aid to Ukraine that the Trump administration approved, which was like ringing the dinner bell for Vlad the Invader. However, I don't believe they were sending an engraved invitation to war. They thought they were "lowering the threat level." Likewise, I don't think the administration or Blackrock wants to prolong Ukraine's agony. They're just doing a botched job.

I've no doubt Ukrainians remember the genocidal policies pursued by Moscow in the 1930s, so it's no surprise they decided to fight. By now the war has become a source of gainful employment for the non-refugee population, whose previous pursuits and careers were crushed. Russia's attempts to destroy civilian morale by attacking the infrastructure may increase their commitment to their current means of employment, which is war. Hopefully, that can soon be replaced with rebuilding.

Before the war, Ukraine was known for its corruption, not its scenic beaches or Alpine ski resorts. Under these circumstances, postwar aid would be confined to NGO soup kitchens. By partnering with Blackrock, they can provide some assurance that the thievery will be kept to a more reasonable level and economic aid may provide benefit to Europe and the wider world. Blackrock would not be my choice to run it but I'm not the one choosing.