Z-mania

 Breaking: President Trump and VP Vance Spar with Zelensky in the Oval Office

In the past, the US made agreements with Joseph Stalin, Breshnev, and Mao -- but Zelensky warns the US about making a deal with Putin. He also tells JD Vance that his intelligence breifings are crap (which may be the case -- unless they are focused on LGBTQ matters). But hey, Z, Marco Rubio knows his dictators.

By lecturing on Putin's untrustworthiness, Zelensky wanted Trump to give a public "reassurance" that could be spun into a security guarantee. It blew up in his face.

Europeans don't understand the US. Trump went way out on a limb for Ukraine. His supporters -- you know, the people who got him elected -- oppose massive aid for Ukraine, and they certainly don't want US corporations economically entwinded there (and their employees being human shields in the border lands). Many are outright hostile to our involvement, which goes back to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's first Trump impeachment over that "perfect Ukrainian phone call" -- to Zelensky, as fate would have it.

Now, European "intellectuals" try to score "we stand with Ukraine" debating points after Zelensky wants to tell the US who it can negotiate with. What's the reaction of most Americans to all this? Fine, it's your problem now.

Zelensky played a leader on TV, where he got to write the script and the clever ending. Well, not today. Today he screwed the pooch. The American people will never support a forever war in the middle of Eurasia. Trump went further with this deal than is politically wise.

Ukraine's Thriving Enterprise

 Putin makes huge mistake as Trump’s comments backfire | Former senior advisor to Zelenskyy

First, non-native speakers of "American" need to know that "Being in the Disinformation Space" is a synonym for "Shut up, you ignorant fool." So, if the Z-man meant to say that to the President, well, he did. Trump probably gained another million supporters as a result. 

Let's assume Ukraine in the 2020s is not a corrupt Banna Republic, but rather a "poor but honest" nation. They don't want to live under Russian domination (who would?). Their European neighbors need to keep an expansionist Russia from their borders -- in fact, all of NATO shares that interest. As a result, this "Poor but Honest" nation receives massive amounts of aid for its war effort.  Soon, the decent people of this honest nation are employed in industries and businesses whose continued prosperity depends on continued war. Career prospects and promotions become dependent on continued war. The politicians in control have a support network dependent on divvied-up war aid. Would the decent people of this poor but honest nation lean toward the most favorable war aims, even if this means further fighting? Because, yes, while they are decent, they are also human.

Of course, not every person in every nation is decent. Corrupt officials and fraudulent businesses can be found everywhere. Realistically, "Corrupt Banna Republic" is a more accurate descriptor of Ukraine's ruling class -- which is more Kleptocratic than Aristocratic. Unsurprisingly, much of the massive infusion of aid is stolen or misallocated. Peace becomes a threat to prosperity. To get Ukraine on board the "peace train," the rulers need to see the war "gravy train" pulling onto the siding. Promises of peacetime opportunities for graft will, no doubt, be required. Their cooperation cannot be bought, but perhaps it can be rented.

While Ukraine's rulers may face a (financial) loss with the end of fighting, Russia's rulers have much to gain. The ending of sanctions and the unfreezing of assets, for instance. Is it possible that Trumps negotiators sensed a stubborness in Ukraine that was lacking in their discussions with the Russians?

 

Negotiating the Negotiations.

Did Trump Just Betray Ukraine?

President Trump's most vocal supporters are quite anti-Ukraine aid. This goes back to Trump's first impeachment, which was based on his phone call with Z-man.

When the Clinton-Pelosi-Obama team failed to frame him as a Russian Spy, Congressional Democrats and the media launched an Impeachment using a leak by a naturalized Intelligence Staffer from Ukraine. Now, by this time any listener to Conservative talk radio considered Ukraine a money laundering piggy bank for Democrats (ie, Hunter Biden's million-dollar no-show job with the legendarily corrupt Burisima). This colored their perception of the Obama-backed "Color Revolution." The chief witnesses at Pelosi's Kangaroo Impeachment Court did not dispel this impression. One was the rumored Brookings Institution paramour of the KGB ex-agent (if there is such a thing) that made up the infamous Steele Document (created by an ex-MI6 agent). To Trump supporters, the swamp is full of poisonous snakes.

I don't think Trump carries a grudge toward Ukraine but he cannot ignore the hostility of much of his political base. Throwing Ukraine under the first tire of the bus does him no political harm and may free him up to aid Ukraine in the future. Meanwhile, few voters want the US involved in conflicts in the Eurasian land mass. Even the Caucasians don't know where the Caucasus is.

We're Conflicted about our Conflicts

The American Way of War, Pt. 1 -- Michael Shurkin

Shurkin discusses wars of annihilation and wars that are less than annihilating -- and less than won. In the process he misses an important point.

Selling a war to the US population requires a moral justification. A National Interest argument won't do because that would be called "neo-imperialism" and get the anti-colonialists all riled up. This prevents the formulation of clear goals for military actions. Believing your own BS is never a good idea. Our adversaries can pursue their clear interests, which gives them an advantage.

Then there's the "Pottery Barn"  principle, where you go into the pottery barn, smash all the pottery, clean it up, and "make it better" after chasing off the proprietor to a comfortable retirement in Dubai. However, if you have a good reason to smash up the Barn, you can leave it that way. After 9-11, smacking the Taliban made sense but sticking around to build schools was a form of self-flagellation. Let Pakistan and India arm their Afghan proxies after leaving -- that'll be punishment enough.

The Iraq war was a mistake based on faulty intelligence or outright lies, your choice.

The Prisoner of Zenda Election II

Can Former President Trump 'Make Felonies Great Again'? || Peter Zeihan

President Trump is a man of convictions -- 36 of them.

I don't expect "the Donald" to realize this, but the way he wins is by making sure the Democrats lose. Should his poll numbers crater, he has a good reason to leave the race and pick a replacement. In the meantime, he should take the high road and pledge to pardon "the Big Guy" for those corrupt dealings with Ukraine and China. Besides, it's like the Special Prosecutor said, the current occupant of the Oval Office is too frail for jail.

The Democrats spent 2020 convincing half of the nation that our justice system is unfair and all the years since convincing the other half of the same (that being the half that supported Federal Law Enforcement). This verdict can be seen as confirmation. And who caused the cratering of faith in our system of justice? The Democrat Party.

And remember, they tried to frame Trump as a spy and a traitor in 2016 (and seventeen and eighteen) and he got 10 million more votes in 2020. So-o-o.

The Prisoner of Zenda Election

Institutional End Points

Google’s AI turns ‘perverts into heroes’: Gutfeld

A couple decades ago, I read of an Old Washington Hand who worked in Congress, the bureaucracy, and lobbyist groups who, upon his retirement, described the DC inner workings as "nerds working for sociopaths." At first, I thought this an exaggeration, but came to embrace its explanatory power.

Unfortunately, that descriptor now applies to most of our major institutions. Given time, it seems that manipulative sociopaths rise to the top, surrounded by an attached train of conspiratorial dependents who -- in Elon Musk's memorable words -- pretend to be good while doing evil. Are Sociopaths framing Donald Trump as a Russian Spy? Nerd journalists are there to help! Should we believe "the Science," as political hacks demand, even when it is no longer believable? Of course!

Artificial intelligence lacks human empathy -- in other words, it's legitimately psychopathic. Now we have "Nerds working for Sociopaths" creating an information system to malevolently manipulate the population for the benefit of psychologically unfit institutions. A few missteps along that road should be expected, but the intended destination remains the same.

Stop giving them money.

Show me a Nazi, Gemini

Don't know much about History?

The ethical situation is politically complex.

Sino-US Realestate Relations

Should We Worry About Chinese Land Purchases in the US? || Peter Zeihan

For a while I've thought the hype about China overtaking the US was overwrought because it's the over-rot in the US we should worry about. In fact, the ones who wanted to promote the rot were the ones promoting China.

There was a year during the Obama administration when DC came up with 90,000 pages of new regulations -- that's what they mean by an increase in productivity. Does this add to inflation? No. Because it all makes things better. When you factor in the qualitative improvements this quantitative improvement has brought about, there is no inflation (see car prices). Since Sputnik, the Federal government has injected itself (and our money) into the education of our children, and achievement scores have gone way down. But when you factor in that the young folks are much better people these days (ask'em), well, it's all good. And now that the Federal Government is in charge of the climate, Wall Street will only be flooded with cash.

In the 1980s I read that the USSR's rate of capital investment was growing yearly and way higher than in the USA, and I thought "Uh-oh for us." Then I read that all that capital investment was producing a negative return -- that they weren't just running on a treadmill to get ahead, but running on a treadmill and falling behind -- and I thought "Uh-oh for them." As regards Communist China, we've transitioned into the "Uh-Oh for them" stage but we are still in the "Uh-oh for US."

The Chinese leadership blamed political reform in the USSR for the collapse of the communist regime and vowed not to make that mistake. This is like blaming the cancer on the desperate remedies used to slow its spread. Now they've tossed that politically convenient "two systems" pledge (allowing limited political and economic freedom) onto the Ashheap of Chinese History. What desperate measures will Xi Jinping use to avoid that same fate?