Who puts the Con in Fusion Confusion?

US nuclear-fusion game-changing achievement

In high school, I got excited about these laser-ignition experiments at the US government labs. That was in 1967 and I looked forward to a future of energy abundance and flying cars. Meanwhile, two generations of researchers have earned a nice retirement -- and I ain't got no flying car. I wish the third generation well.

For over half a century they've focused multiple lasers on tiny magic-mixture pellets in microsecond bursts. For one brief shining moment, they produce the center of the sun-like conditions that compress two hydrogen atoms together to make one helium, releasing a burst of energy in the process. How many seconds of power per decade does it all add up to? Less than a minute? Of course, they were actually modeling more effective H-bombs, so maybe we got our money's worth (we won't know until the world is utterly destroyed in a nuclear holocaust).

The current irritating and irradiating "fission" Nuclear Power Industry came to us courtesy of these same government labs, as well as the entire political establishment (you see, nukes are not just H-bombs and huge, mutant, lizard-monster things!). Of course, the electric utilities got the blame for the industry's real and Hollywood-conjured shortcomings, though at the time those executives knew nothing about nuclear energy and needed a kick in the butt to adopt it. They were happy burning coal to make the electric energy we demand, so blame them for that.

During the promotional period, we were told that nuclear energy would be so abundant that it would not be metered and the downsides weren't mentioned. I was in middle school and looked forward to a future of abundant energy and flying cars. Of course, the researchers were looking for grants -- mo' money -- so a positive slant is to be expected, back then and right now.

Still, I'm all for fusion energy. It's how we'll power our new robot girlfriends. "Honey, grab me a beer."/"Of course, darling, shall I massage your feet as well?"

Women can have robot girlfriends, too. They can complain about not having boyfriends.

Oh My God, what a Zilla

 Godzilla Suite

The soundtrack to Godzilla, Minus One. I haven't seen the latest but rather like The Suite.

As a Kid in the 1950's I saw one of the early Godzilla movies (maybe the first one) after it had been adapted for the US market. They hired a few Hollywood B movie actors for spliced-in scenes that showed the US as an ally in the fight rather than, oh, let's see -- the cause. The additions didn't improve it. The thing is, even as a kid I was aware of the destruction the US dealt Japan and Japanese civilians.  I didn't know the meaning of the word "metaphor" but I knew it when I saw it. Even before the use of the atomic bomb, the firebombing of Tokyo and other cities took hundreds of thousands of lives.

Ironically, and counterintuitively, the use of the atomic bombs may have saved Japanese lives. If the US invaded many would have died on both sides and if the US had blockaded Japan many would have starved (the US actually sent food aid to Japan after the surrender).

Perhaps the Japanese have decided that "living well" is the best revenge. Then again, it's a dish best-served cold.

COP-Out China

 COP28 Climate Change Conference

They're throwing another Climate Change feast somewhere and the number 28 means there were 27 previous party-hardies for the Climate Control Crowd. Peter Zeihan provides a short summation of what is going on. Apparently China, often held up as a model, is in "count me out" mode on the latest proposal.

Zeihan makes a point similar to the one I've been making for decades: CO2 is like "the little gas that could" in the global warming catastrophe scenario.  It works on a narrow spectrum of sunlight and is quite potent when first introduced but soon approaches its "upper limit" when it comes to greenhouse warming. At this point, its additional effects are rather small (water vapor is more powerful and when will they do something about the rain?). To get its assigned Civilization-destroying job done, CO2 needs a lot of help. This comes in the form of "feedback loops."

Methane is a potent greenhouse gas.  There is a lot of methane hydrate at the bottom of the ocean, where the pressure and the cold keep it trapped.  Warm the Oceans and this methane is released, leading to a runaway greenhouse effect and a potential mass extinction event.  This is the "feedback loop" that all the other "feedback loops" lead to.

There is a problem though. Methane breaks down rapidly in the atmosphere and in a few years much of it is gone and in ten years all of it. So it can't be a slow, steady release of methane, it has to happen quickly to produce the kind of effects that will make fearful populations willing to pay more taxes, higher more bureaucrats and submit to more control. Not Enough Government seems to be the real crisis all these Climate COPs are addressing.

Midway to Space

 SpaceX Starship Third Launch! Closer Than You Think

Felix, at his WAI YouTube channel, discusses the possible expansions of StarBase Texas to accommodate more launches of Starship. Considering the opposition that a few launches a year stir up, I wonder if an increased capacity will be needed -- not when the intended future pace is a dozen (or several) a day. These ships will carry 200 tons of cargo into Low Earth Orbit and then return for relaunch (with some return cargo once space manufacturing is up and running). Hearing the accompanying Kabooms might upset the neighbors (not to mention the risks of a mishap).  

So here is a modest proposal: establish a spaceport at Midway Island in the Pacific. It's midway between the Americas and Asia and could be a great future location for a Space Manufacturing hop-hub, with all the accompanying ups and downs.

The island (part of the Hawaiian Island chain) is small -- though it was the center of a decisive WWII naval battle that carries its name.  However, it is surrounded by US territorial waters where "Oil Platform" style launch pads could be located. Converted container ships could provide areas for workshops. LNG-style tankers could store fuel. A cruise liner could house the workforce. Much of the ground-level work can be done from Hawaii and the families of launch crews could live there while the working partners return for breaks.

The Island is isolated, so the high pace of launching and catching rockets won't disturb voters. Of course, it's now a wilderness area so some care would be required not to disturb the fish. Congress should establish a legal framework to allow private companies and competing launchers to operate from the Midway Spaceport transparently. A regulated, but privately owned, Spaceport Authority could be established and listed on the New York Stock Exchange.

Saving Myself

 A while back I decided that the comments I spread around the internet display such genius that I should start saving them. So I put a folder on my desktop and labeled it "Comments." It contains one. Here it is:

The United States has a two-party system: There is a Responsible Party and an Irresponsible Party.

The Responsible Party is easy to identify. When something goes wrong, the Responsible Party is the party responsible -- either individually or as a group (as in "it's society's fault"). The Irresponsible Party is never responsible for the problem (when Flint's water went bad, was it the responsibility of the water department? Why ask). However, the Irresponsible Party will freely offer solutions that the Responsible Party should finance and implement (while ignoring the name-calling, the selfish bastards).

Members of the Irresponsible Party are more difficult to identify because they often look responsible and act responsibly where their own lives are concerned. They can push for a course on Critical Race Theory and non-racist athematic in public schools while sending their own kids to private schools. The typical criminal is a member of the Irresponsible Party but so is the prosecutor that releases a criminal with a high probability of offending again. Neither is responsible for what happens.

Members of the Irresponsible Party are often idealists who will join an organization with no intention of furthering that organization's mission. Indeed, their intention is to re-purpose the institution and move it in a different direction, to basically undermine it and fundamentally transform it. Their actions are deliberate, but often lack deliberation. Having identified with a cause on a personal level, questioning the wisdom of their actions becomes a highly personal attack on their self-worth. This applies to the idealist. The Sociopaths, who hope to take over when society fails and falls, don't practice self-deceit, just deceit straight-up.

I was thinking of making this a book with reasoned arguments and examples and footnotes and stuff.

A current example is Hamas -- an irresponsible party -- and Israel (guess which role it fills).

Deutschland Uber all the Rest?

 The End of Germany as a Modern Economy || Peter Zeihan

Peter uses his "Merry Prophet of Doom" persona for this short video. He's hiking in the Rockies and increased endorphins may account for his detachment from the existential struggles facing the inhabitants of central Europe. In the past, these folks became quite proactive when facing a perceived threat -- just ask the ancient Romans. Need we mention the "Lebensraum" phase that required so much of the world's attention in the 1930s and 1940s? No. Simply alluding to those events will do.

He mentions Germany's 2 trillion dollar expenditure on "Green Energy," and the statistical and rhetorical tap-dancing required to make it appear more than a waste of resources. Then there is the bet on Russia as the primary source of the raw materials that feed German Industry -- putting Putin in the position to cut that lifeline. Fortunately, coal's discount cousin, lignite (with its bonus CO2), has come to the rescue.

He expected Putin's cutting the gas supply would make German support for Ukraine collapse, but I wasn't so sure: Donald Trump predicted that scenario, and we can't have him look good. So, which is the more likely explanation: the Social Democrats' unexpected acquisition of fortitude or their sudden need to avoid embarrassment?

In the end, Peter suggests that an aging population may cause Germany to "pass into this good night -- quietly" instead of -- as Dylan Thomas said -- raging against the dying of the light. Who wants to see Germany in a rage?

I'm not so sure about the dying of Germany's industrial might or light -- though not about the "quietly" part, since Quiet Patience can be an excellent policy. Through no fault of its own, Germany finds Ukraine fighting a war that America is largely financing that will, in the end, likely benefit Germany. Assuming Ukraine maintains its independence -- with or without territorial loss -- it will be dependent on a benevolent Germany and it will be in Germany's interest to be benevolent. Ukraine can supply food from industrial farms and young people to an industrial Germany (Ukraine also has an aging population but its young people can send money home to mom and dad). A chastened Russia will once again become a reliable raw material supplier while needing a German-dominated NATO as a guarantor against an expansionist China and secessionist movements.

Did I say "a German-dominated Nato?" Yep. With a Russian defeat in Ukraine, the US participation in NATO will no longer be needed. Remember, the reason for keeping America in is to keep Germany down, and why would the Germans want that? As NATO's focus moves into Central Asia, Americans will feel increasingly uncomfortable with their membership in the organization, and rightly so: very few Americans want to get involved in a country whose name ends in stan. Perhaps the Germans will show the US the door while the French become desperate for the Americans to stay. Might they offer the US a base in Alsace-Lorraine?

Think of it as "Wet-landia"

Commentary: ‘The Swamp’ is everywhere — even in Republican Tennessee

I call the conglomeration of special interests that controls this country The Crony Class. The Crony Class has its Crony Class Consciousness and Crony Class interests. Its chief interest is a continually growing government, used to dispense favors and money to members of the Crony Class and the retainers who support their demands.

Naturally, they cannot be upfront about any of this. I would rather discuss the 2,200 billion dollars of borrowed money (just this year!) they are using to keep themselves in power, as well as the tens of thousands of additional pages of regulations they are using to solidify their class interests and pick winners (themselves) and losers (everyone else). They would prefer I focus my attention on the tribulations and trials (literally) of Donald Trump -- not that I blame them.

After all, they want to control the 7,200 billion dollars flowing through Washington DC every year (and grow it to 10,000 billion) and take control of everything in the nation through the regulatory and retaliatory bureaucracy. These are high stakes, and it would take a collection of saints to avoid temptation (and there are far more sociopaths in this class than saints). So they put some people in jail who shouldn't be there and release others who should be incarcerated, even when that seems detrimental to their political interest.

However, convicting the innocent while freeing the guilty displays their power and prepares their retainers for the harshers measures that will be inevitably called for. You see, their appetite grows with the eating, and they'll soon be short of food. Unfortunately, the rest of us will be starving (on account of the bad weather caused by Henry Ford providing cars to the workers, who should be kept in their place). I call this future end-state Feudalism with the Right People in Charge.