They done-gone crossed the Don.

Update: This was a quick take on Pregozhin's mutiny. Interestingly, he didn't follow the oldest advice in politics: when you strike at the King, kill him.

Suddenly, Ukraine against Russia is Ukraine against a Russia that's against itself, as the recent uncivil arguments among military leaders turn to civil war.

Someone has done-gone crossed the Don -- both the "Rubicon" River Don and the Don of the top Russian crime family. Yevgeny Prigozhin has launched his Wagner group at the throat of his Godfather, Vlad-the-invader. Maybe Putin putting this "criminal cook" at the head of a powerful, well-armed, independent, and ruthless military organization was a bad idea. Or a good one, depending on your point of view.

"Tsar" is the Russian form of Caesar and Prigozhin is doing a Juilius -- except Julius Caesar won his wars before he crossed the Rubicon and marched on Rome. Yevgeny behaves like he's Noodles Romanov but aims to become a Tsar Romanov -- successor to Putin the Terrible. I anticipate the Male Heirs of any Prigozhin era will be male errors. OK, enough with the puns.  

The conflict between Prigozhin and the rest of the Crime Family went on a slow boil last year. The Ukrainians holding on to the City of Bakhmut turned up the heat as the slaughter progressed. At first, I thought the dispute with the Defense Minister was contrived but it became so public I soon believed it was real. 

Could we see a repeat of the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk of a century ago? Aspiring Tsar Vladimir Lenin relinquished much of the Russian Empire to exit World War One and launch his Communist Red Army at the Bourgeoisie Whites in a bloody civil war. By announcing the withdrawal of Russian forces in Ukraine to the 2/22/2022 lines, Putin could free up troops to come at the Wagners from the rear while splitting NATO into "war-continuing" and "peace-declaring" camps. He should do this now while offering some sort of joint military guarantees for a semi-autonomous Crimea that the West -- if not Ukraine -- will quickly accept.

Interestingly, Prigozhin made a statement attacking the premise of the invasion of Ukraine that could well be a bid for support from NATO countries. If Putin doesn't act, Prigozhin may get it. The offer of a quick end to sanctions by the West in return for withdrawal to the 1991 borders with Ukraine would help Wagner Inc. win the support of the Russian elites.

The West will want a quick settlement here, if possible. A prolonged Civil War in Russia could quickly spread throughout central Asia and beyond.

Wagner is Going to Moscow.

Matt on the Rack

In this Youtube clip, Matt Taibbi informs hostile congressional Democrats of the existence of the first amendment.

 The Democrats Have Lost the Plot

I've read his stuff for years and always thought he leaned left (he published in Rolling Stone, for Chrissake). He was always skeptical of the workings of the Security State while I was a little less so. I thought there was too much power concentrated in Washington DC in general -- that it controls far too much of the economy, which invites corruption -- whereas he seemed more sympathetic to the regulatory state. I think the power concentration has corrupted the Federal Government and the media -- which now largely functions as another government bureaucracy. This is why I would call Matt Taibbi a Reporter, rather than a Journalist: Reporters report, Journalists ists.

He publishes at Racket News on Substack. His article about his appearance before the committee is here.

Hollywood has lost the plot...

...and substituted a conspiracy.

In a comment on Disparu's youtube channel, I made the mistake of comparing Amazon's The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power to a low-budget Xena, Warrior Princess that could have used a Lucy Lawless in the lead. Understandably, that really upset the Xena, Warrior Princess fans, and maybe Lucy Lawless as well. I should say I was impressed with the range Lawless displayed as an actor in Eurotrip. She's New Zealand raised but made a convincing Dutch Dominatrix.

I also said that if you ignore what The Rings of Power did to Tolkien (which might constitute felony murder were he still alive), it was not a horrible show.  This, too, was a controversial statement, with others claiming it was clearly horrendous and how could I possibly think otherwise? However, my reasoning here was quite simple: if it's horrible, and I watched every episode, what does that say about me? Rather than stare into that particular abyss, I decided it was a bad, expensive flop -- that if they were trying to make it horrible (a possibility), they hadn't quite succeeded.

Expensive flops are nothing new for Hollywood, but these days a creative mess isn't allowed to sink into the obscurity it deserves. Hollywood now sees itself as the declining Rome of the Entertainment World, offering treasures for protection to a barbarian horde outside its walls, only to anger and whet the appetites of others. It's entered the realm of politics which, these days, is not just "a house divided against itself," but an old mansion where it's every room, closet, and cubbyhole for itself (and don't leave out the servants' quarters). As a result, Hollywood doesn't know whether to fight, flee, or fortify.

Politics has always played a role but it wasn't of paramount importance at Paramount or universally agreed upon at Universal or really dizzy at Disney -- or, for that matter, the lead actor in acting. Left-leaning filmmakers could make a conservative-themed movie and a conservative executive might green-light a left-wing consciousness-raising effort. In the last decade, consciousness-raising has taken over (Hollywood, having found its religion, won't shut up about it).

Recently, I rewatched The Hunger Games and wondered if these days the people making it would have more sympathy for the Capital -- the ignorant folks in the districts just don't understand the problems the experts face just keeping things together! Meanwhile, Indigenous Activists complain about the portrayal of the indigenous inhabitants of an alien planet in the Avatar sequel. Using their criteria, every human should boycott that film. In fact, that's what I'm doing -- until it makes it to Tubi, at least.

My advice to Hollywood is to get on "The Right-Side of Story-Telling" and forget about history (which they find an easy task in the movies they make).

International Money Monkey Business

Jeff Snider has a YouTube video where he explains international money flows.

For a long time, just to keep it simple, I've told people that the U.S.A. imports air conditioners and other stuff and exports debt -- mostly government debt -- as well as land (not the dirt, but the ownership of the dirt) and other assets. Wall Street likes this because they market the debt and manage the assets and Washington DC politicians like this because they can spend an extra trillion in the run-up to an election without having to raise taxes (to think they will curb that habit before it's too late is, perhaps, asking too much). Foreign financiers use the dollar in dealings with other nations. They also consider the U.S. a safe haven (even when they are ideologically committed to destroying the U.S. -- see the Chinese Politburo).

I don't think there is a shortage of Eurodollars so much as an increase in moral hazard. In the 1990s there was a belief that China would bolster the world financial system. Unfortunately, that would require the CCP to give up control of their national economy (and they do see it as theirs). It's become apparent the communists will not let that happen and are quite willing to stiff investors -- especially foreign investors -- to keep control. The killing of the Chinese capitalist chicken has scared the Eurodollar money-monkies and caused a tightening of lending standards while increasing the "safe-haven" appeal of the dollar.

Then there's Putin punishing the world and the world punishing Putin...

Is the dollar sluggish or thuggish?