They Unleashed the Demon in Demography

 

New Chinese Demographic Data = Population Collapse || Peter Zeihan

Could it be worse than bad? Yep.

In 1982 I worked as a consultant for the United Nations Population Fund for Asia in Bangkok. I wrote summaries of population studies and was glad when that project was over.

One night in a bar in Hong Kong, I talked to a fellow who worked on the "One Child Policy" that the CCP installed on the mainland. I kept my own council but thought the idea was a bit screwy -- but not because I thought they would fail. The iron law of government institutional immortality says that once they built a giant bureaucracy around the "One Child Policy," it would roll on well past its "should die" date, resulting in something like an upside-down population pyramid.  One insight I picked up from my work at UNFPA was that population growth falls as economies develop and infant mortality declines, so recovery from any "overkill" would be hard. The data from China's urban areas bears this out.

But at least the bureaucracy can survive, switching from forced abortions to forced births as they launch a thirty-year effort to right the list before the ship-of-state rolls over and sinks.

Bloody War Catch-up

 And Now We Return to Our Regularly Scheduled Program (Ukraine War Updates)

Peter Zeihan looks at Ukraine's counteroffensive as it enters its fourth week.

When Putin launched his invasion, I didn't expect it to go well because the iron law of armed conflict is that wars are easier to start than to stop -- although there are notable exceptions to the rule.

In the 1930s, Ukrainians were "starved into submission" by Moscow (Putin's a veteran of the "security service" that carried out that particular genocide). They suffered rough treatment immediately before and after WWII -- during which large armies engaged in brutal combat rolled over the area twice. As a result, Ukrainians could expect a Russian victory to be followed by a heavy hand holding a mallet.

Because of Moscow's previous rule over the country, numerous fifth columnists were in place (the Russian thrust out of Crimea went surprisingly well). As the effort stalled, the worm -- and the Ukranian nation -- turned.

Unfortunately, Russia grabbed a lot of territories, and taking it back is a long and bloody process, even with Western Military aid -- a fraction of which, delivered before the invasion, would likely have prevented it.

The Dastardly Motive behind the Russian Coup Attempt.

This whole coup attempt was staged by Putin to divert the world's attention from the January Sixth Insurrectionist window-breaking incident at the Capitol in D.C., as well as the many crimes of Donald Trump. Putin, who is not known as the forgiving type, graciously pardoned everyone involved in the "Militarized March on Moscow," just to make Joe Biden and the Democrats appear petty and vindictive in their pursuit of justice. If he can forgive the downing of high-tech spyplanes and attack helicopters, the Dems can forgive a few broken windows. It is Russian interference in our Judicial System, plain and simple.

Limp Noodle

Prigozhin has called off his march on Moscow. Previously, I wrote that Noodles Romanov wanted to become Tsar Romanov.  But now he's just all wet.

He should stay away from windows and swimming pools. I suggest a world tour -- make that an anonymous would tour after plastic surgery.