On Nova (PBS) the other night they described a theory of parallel universes which says anything that can possibly happen will happen. It reminded me of this election and those polls.
IBDeditorials.com: IBD/TIPP Economic, Presidential Election, and Political Polls -- IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll: Day Eleven
But the New York Times has Sen. Obama at plus 13 (52-39).
Why are these polls describing two completely different elections? Perhaps the answer can be found among the undecideds. I think all the polls measure "committed voters" accurately. But the Investor Business Daily poll has close 12 percent undecided. If the pollster puts additional pressure on the voter to "decide right now," they break for Obama. This may accurately reflect what they will do on election day, or it may accurately reflect what they do do when talking to a stranger who has their phone number -- give that person the answer that person wants to hear. If they represent a major news organization, 70 perecent of the people will assume the answer is "Obama."
IBDeditorials.com: IBD/TIPP Economic, Presidential Election, and Political Polls -- IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll: Day Eleven
McCain has cut into Obama's lead for a second day and is now just 1.1 points behind. The spread was 3.7 Wednesday and 6.0 Tuesday. The Republican is making headway with middle- and working- class voters, and has surged 10 points in two days among those earning between $30,000 and $75,000. He has also gone from an 11-point deļ¬cit to a 9-point lead among Catholics.
But the New York Times has Sen. Obama at plus 13 (52-39).
Why are these polls describing two completely different elections? Perhaps the answer can be found among the undecideds. I think all the polls measure "committed voters" accurately. But the Investor Business Daily poll has close 12 percent undecided. If the pollster puts additional pressure on the voter to "decide right now," they break for Obama. This may accurately reflect what they will do on election day, or it may accurately reflect what they do do when talking to a stranger who has their phone number -- give that person the answer that person wants to hear. If they represent a major news organization, 70 perecent of the people will assume the answer is "Obama."
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