Wednesday, October 29, 2008

And now that they've invented spell check, even I could do it.

Jules Crittenden » Embarrassment
Yeah, well here’s my advice on that point, Mike. Call yourself a reporter, an editor, a columnist, a commentator, whatever it is you actually do. “Journalist” is a bogus word for people who are trying to make it sound like this wretched business is something exalted, something professional, something that requires arcane, secret knowledge hard come by. All things it never was, as amply demonstrated on a regular basis by some of the best in the business working at some of the finest publications in the nation.


I was talking to a friend about the news "business" a decade or so ago and opined the Columbia school of Journalism graduates were quickly squandering the reputation for reliability that high school drop outs built over the past century.

Monday, October 27, 2008

Sheer Panic: it ain't panty hose.

Nouriel Roubini: I fear the worst is yet to come - Times Online
Dubbed Dr Doom for his gloomy views, this lugubrious disciple of the “dismal science” is now the world’s most in-demand economist. He reckons he is getting about four hours’ sleep a night. Last week he was in Budapest, London, Madrid and New York. Next week he will address Congress in Washington. Do not expect any good news.

Contacted in Madrid on Friday, Roubini said the world economy was “at a breaking point”. He believes the stock markets are now “essentially in free fall” and “we are reaching the point of sheer panic”.

For all his recent predictive success, his critics still urge calm. They charge he is a professional doom-monger who was banging on about recession for years as the economy boomed. Roubini is stung by such charges, dismissing them as “pathetic”.


OK. I know what I'm gonna do. After Obama wins and those government checks start rolling in I am going to cash them and buy gold.

Sunday, October 26, 2008

CNN reports Desperately

Yesterday Democratic friends of mine told me of a CNN report about chaos and back stabbing in the McCain Campaign. They were hoping to get me barking mad, of course, but I took the news with equanimity. I good-naturedly pointed out what lying skunks they are over at CNN (it's not about the truth -- unless the truth works -- it's about furthering the lie and shaping opinion to fit the lie). Then today I read this:

CNN Political Ticker: Palin warns Obama would create nanny state if elected
"Are we hearing what he is saying with 10 days to go?” she asked plaintively. “Are voters hearing what he is saying about his plans for bigger government?”

Asked plaintively. Yep: Now it is chaos and desperation in the campaign rhetoric!

Way to go Z-man! Zero out that poll!

Zogby International
“There is no question that this race continues to tighten and that McCain is finding his message again,” said Pollster John Zogby. “It is after all about the economy and that is how McCain tightened it up the last time. I have said over and over again, when he focuses on extraneous issues, he screws up. In today's single day of polling, it was 49% to 46% in favor of Obama. McCain has moved his own numbers each of the three days and Obama has gone down from 54% to 50% to 49%. I have alluded before to this strange, magnetic pull that brings Obama down to 48% or 49%, a danger zone for him. McCain's gains are among white voters, where he now leads by 12 points, and with men, where he again has a healthy lead. There is still a lot of campaign to go. A lot of campaign to go.”


Just the other day the Zog produced a poll with Obama up 12. Now he is saying it is basically a three point race -- in other words, within the margin of error. This swing occurs in a matter of forty-eight hours. A strange magnetic pull indeed. Talk about spin. From the North Pole toward the South Pole.

Friday, October 24, 2008

Confidence

Political Radar: Palin Guarantees Win in Pennsylvania
ABC News' Imtiyaz Delawala reports: Near the hometown of Hall of Fame quarterback Joe Namath, Republican vice presidential nominee Gov. Sarah Palin guaranteed a come-from-behind victory for the McCain-Palin ticket in Pennsylvania.


She is so sure they will carry the state that she'll wager those ruby red slippers the RNC gave her.

North Pole, South Pole, Times poll, TIPP poll

On Nova (PBS) the other night they described a theory of parallel universes which says anything that can possibly happen will happen. It reminded me of this election and those polls.

IBDeditorials.com: IBD/TIPP Economic, Presidential Election, and Political Polls -- IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll: Day Eleven
McCain has cut into Obama's lead for a second day and is now just 1.1 points behind. The spread was 3.7 Wednesday and 6.0 Tuesday. The Republican is making headway with middle- and working- class voters, and has surged 10 points in two days among those earning between $30,000 and $75,000. He has also gone from an 11-point deļ¬cit to a 9-point lead among Catholics.


But the New York Times has Sen. Obama at plus 13 (52-39).

Why are these polls describing two completely different elections? Perhaps the answer can be found among the undecideds. I think all the polls measure "committed voters" accurately. But the Investor Business Daily poll has close 12 percent undecided. If the pollster puts additional pressure on the voter to "decide right now," they break for Obama. This may accurately reflect what they will do on election day, or it may accurately reflect what they do do when talking to a stranger who has their phone number -- give that person the answer that person wants to hear. If they represent a major news organization, 70 perecent of the people will assume the answer is "Obama."

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Which way muse

My Way News - AP presidential poll: Race tightens in final weeks
The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain's "Joe the plumber" analogy struck a chord.

Three weeks ago, an AP-GfK survey found that Obama had surged to a seven-point lead over McCain, lifted by voters who thought the Democrat was better suited to lead the nation through its sudden economic crisis.


Interesting. In the same period that the AP poll swung six points towards McCain, the Zogby poll has swung eight points toward Obama (to Obama +10). They must have swapped call lists or something.

I said a few weeks ago that if McCain pulls a win out we would have to place the entire Main Stream Media and the rest of the Democratic Party on Suicide watch. We might need to add pollsters to the group as well.