Mortgaging the Other Guy's Future

 Why China’s Debt Crisis Is Much Worse Than America’s | Export Numbers | BYD Pain

For years, China would "print" a lot of money and "experience" a lot of deflation -- sorta counterintuitive. I'm reminded of Keynes's "Liquidity Trap," where people have money but are unwilling to spend or invest. China seems to have done Keynes one better and come up with "The Illiquidity Trap," where excess money creation gets locked up in underperforming assets that require more money creation to stay afloat. That's likely what killed the Soviet Union (OK, there's a long list), which had high Capital Investment with often negative returns.

In China's case, as long as it could export goods to earn "hard currency" (ie, dollars), it could turn the currency it created into something useful (imported goods or exported influence, such as the Belt and Road Initiative). This came at the expense of the ordinary Chinese people (whose labor was undervalued) and to the great gain of the CCP -- whose leaders became wealthy. As China's "Trading Partners in Crime" put up trade barriers, the Illiquidity Trap closes.

The CCP Devours its Kittens

Shanghai Has Fallen: China’s Shining Star Is Now a Ghost Town

In addition to the "Demographics and Debt" problems affecting all of China, Shanghai may have a Political one. When I hear of Xi's "anti-corruption drive," I think Political Purge. When I hear "Common Prosperity," I think "redirecting resources away from my opponents." And "fancy new methods of production?" That means directing resources towards supporters. Meanwhile, "Wolf Warrior Diplomacy" can scare off foreign investors who help prop up political opponents. Shanghai could be on the wrong side of CCP political infighting, where undermining the local economy also undermines a CCP clique (ie, the Jiang Zemin faction) that's on the outs with Xi. The new Great Helmsman is steering power towards the interior. As resources leave, so do the people. Xi's departure could bring a partial revival.

War, Good Lord, what is it Good for?

The REAL Reason Russia Hasn't Lost the War Yet

When Trump said he could solve the war in 24 hours once elected, I said, "Sure, if it's an hour a month for two years." My analysis was based on the life cycle of a war economy. Initially, a war allows politicians to mobilize the "surplus capacity" of the economy. They then distribute the surplus in a way that builds support. However, it is money spent, not invested. And the appetite -- as the old Russian saying has it -- grows with the eating. So, as the surplus runs out, the supporters want more. That's when the leaders will expand the war, looking for more "more" to spread around and keep the support. Another method is to turn the conflict into a true existential crisis: We lose, and you all lose everything!

Both sides have a war economy, but Ukraine has deep pockets on its side. Allowing the life cycle of the War Economy to bring Putin to the table means preventing the war's expansion by Putin by taking easy victories off the table (the NATO expansion helped with that) while convincing the Ruling class that their War Economy future is bleak, but a Peace Economy future, after a quick transition, is much brighter. This might require an existential guarantee, an unstated extension of the Pax Americana to include a secure Russian Federation within its current borders. This will prevent the need to carve up Eastern Russia with China (though the Kamchatka Peninsula would make a nice National Park), an admittedly somewhat delicate and risky venture -- though perhaps required if China gets its way.

Dead Secrets, Living Leassons

 This first appeared fifteen years ago.

I often watch "Secrets of the Dead" on PBS. I like the program for what it reveals about Western Intellectuals. One episode speculated that the Christians burned down ancient Rome (Christians who were at the same time Jews), thus, in this rendition, clearing Emperor Nero of arson -- though he may have fiddled during the flames, no way to tell.

I first saw the episode that will reprise on Wednesday (Aztec Massacre) in April. It deals with the encounter of the Aztec Empire with "Cortés and the Conquistadors." It centers on captured Spaniards (including women) who were sacrificed along with some unruly subjects of the Aztecs.

The ritual involved skillfully ripping the heart out of a living human; lifting said heart up to the sky while it is still beating; tossing the heartless (and maybe headless, I forgot to take notes) body down a steep flight of steps; butchering said heartless/headless/discarded body.

Well, I thought we could all come together on this behavior and say, "That is just wrong." Liberal and Conservative could finally agree -- Marxist Intellectual and capitalist Robber Baron as well.

OK, maybe we all know that one special "exception" to the rule where ripping out the heart might be understandable (though never condoned). But to do this by the thousands? At what point have you gone from a Civilization that has "a problem" to "A Problem" that has a civilization? I mean, talk about the church militant.

Gee, I lack nuance. First, the slaughter was done to keep the sun in the sky, and the sun is still up there so they must have done a pretty good job. Plus, the Aztecs lacked beasts of burden and their subject peoples kinda filled that role. And what do you do with an ornery beast of burden? You turn him into a much-needed protein supplement -- and do it in a way to encourage "the others." So: Sun's in the sky. Maize is in the fields. Pyramid's gettin' built. Capital's kept clean. And all the Spaceships are solar-powered (sorry, that was Atlantis). Why, times were almost good.

Then Cortes shows up -- a combination entrepreneur and labor-organizing thug who's gonna steal your retirement. If only he weren't an entrepreneur but, alas!

At this point, the Aztec Priestly caste became the "resistance." What's the evidence they turned into minutemen? There were Spanish heads included in those skull racks -- along with the heads of their new-fangled horses (Listen, burden-carrying oppressed peoples, those ponies want your jobs).

Well, I concluded that one priestly caste (tenured academia) identifies strongly with another priestly caste. The Priests no doubt bathed more frequently than the on-the-make Spaniards. They were respectful of (their) learning and knew the value of a good protein supplement. They knew how to get additional sacrifices from their unwilling populations to keep their institutions up and running. They did not beg for grants, they just took that pound of flesh, only by the ton!

I, on the other hand, saw those Aztec intellectuals as bitter men clinging to their religion and razor-sharp obsidian ceremonial blades, all the while fearing change and blaming migrants for bringing "new ideas and new beliefs."

Meanwhile, with the help of a vicious pandemic, the Spaniards slipped into the role of the Aztecs. 

Those who rule in the present can have a certain regard for the problems the Aztec rulers faced. I mean, keeping the sun up in the sky is thirsty work. And as the sun gets closer, the globe gets hotter. That means more sacrifices to push it back up and keep things cool. And how do you get folks to willingly sacrifice (or unwillingly, when it comes down to it) to keep that grand project well-resourced?

Am I being unfair here? Let me think. Nah.

Maryland Man or Salvadoran Savage?

Liberal Media HUMILIATED as DESPERATE Dems in Polling FREEFALL

The Democrats have chosen their stand-in for every put-upon innocent in the world: Kilmar Abrego Garcia. Of course, one must be willing to ignore a few items on his resume (or rap sheet).

In Patron-Client relationships, the patron offers protection and benefits to clients in return for loyalty and service. This is a feature of Progressive Politics (one of their criticisms of Trump are his "transactional" relationships). We often see them defending people who are hardly deserving of these efforts  -- their clients. These campaigns are not about saving these clients (in fact, they are disposable) but about recruiting others impressed by the display of power. In a sense, a "Dead George" is better than a live "Maryland Man."

At the same time, the movement goes after the opponents with few, or no, holds barred (see: Jan. 6ers). Attacking the "good" while defending "the bad" reenforces loyalty among the cadres. Anyone can champion the innocent, it takes a servile hack to champion the guilty. Still, it's the "under the table" benefits that keep the influential and wealthy recruits attached (see USAID etc.). Their cronies grow hungry and need to be fed.

These "misfires" and loss of power displays are an existential threat to the movement. A moderate camouflage is called for.

Tactics and Tariffs

The Genius Behind The Trump Tariffs

We export Government Debt. "Junk" is sold to US consumers for dollars and Junk (dollar-denominated Treasury Debt) is bought by foreigners. Incumbent -- and often incompetent -- politicians can spend money to keep their supporters happy without raising taxes. If the dollar were backed by gold, we would have run out of gold (and imports) in the 1960s. But then we could not have fought the Vietnam War and built LBJ's not-so-Great Society.

The dollar is now backed by American assets (such as real estate -- when they sell our debt, they can buy our houses). We sacrificed our industries to re-elect politicians and benefit Wall Street, Silicon Valley, and the Wealthy Everywhere. Next, we'll sacrifice our homes. We need to get spending under control.

The President should announce a trade deficit target. The deficit was $1.2 trillion last year, so put it at $800 billion this year, $400 billion the year after, and a max of 200 billion every year after that. Impose penalty tariffs for each year a nation sells 10 percent more than it buys. The more goods a country buys from the US, the more it can sell in return. 

Oh, the Horror!

Global Financial Bloodbath: $5 Trillion Wiped In 2 Days | Will Europe Turn To China

For decades, one of the biggest—if not the biggest—US exports was (and is) debt, mostly government debt. Foreign nationals use Treasury bills as collateral, often in trade with nations other than the US. Meanwhile, Wall Street makes out as the "middle man," and Congress Critters can spend money feeding their special interest friends without raising taxes. So we are selling off bits of our nation in return for trinkets.

To cut the trade deficit, we will need to cut the budget deficit or save more as a nation (and consume less). In recent years, the Treasury floated more short-term debt, which we must roll over, so interest rates may not decline by much (although those looking for a "cash" position while things get sorted may want what the Treasury offers). Painful adjustments (many affecting quite influential groups) will be required.

Inflation has helped boost the stock market beyond the valuations the traditional "P/E" ratios would suggest. We may be witnessing a return to the mean, which may seem mean indeed as investors race to "de-leverage" first. Meanwhile, most corporations bought back shares when interest rates were low, pumping up the market, and may be selling now.

It is said Europe will turn to China to replace the United States, while China turns to Europe to replace the United States. I wish them luck.