The REAL Reason Russia Hasn't Lost the War Yet
When Trump said he could solve the war in 24 hours once elected, I said, "Sure, if it's an hour a month for two years." My analysis was based on the life cycle of a war economy. Initially, a war allows politicians to mobilize the "surplus capacity" of the economy. They then distribute the surplus in a way that builds support. However, it is money spent, not invested. And the appetite -- as the old Russian saying has it -- grows with the eating. So, as the surplus runs out, the supporters want more. That's when the leaders will expand the war, looking for more "more" to spread around and keep the support. Another method is to turn the conflict into a true existential crisis: We lose, and you all lose everything!
Both sides have a war economy, but Ukraine has deep pockets on its side. Allowing the life cycle of the War Economy to bring Putin to the table means preventing the war's expansion by Putin by taking easy victories off the table (the NATO expansion helped with that) while convincing the Ruling class that their War Economy future is bleak, but a Peace Economy future, after a quick transition, is much brighter. This might require an existential guarantee, an unstated extension of the Pax Americana to include a secure Russian Federation within its current borders. This will prevent the need to carve up Eastern Russia with China (though the Kamchatka Peninsula would make a nice National Park), an admittedly somewhat delicate and risky venture -- though perhaps required if China gets its way.
