We're Conflicted about our Conflicts

The American Way of War, Pt. 1 -- Michael Shurkin

Shurkin discusses wars of annihilation and wars that are less than annihilating -- and less than won. In the process he misses an important point.

Selling a war to the US population requires a moral justification. A National Interest argument won't do because that would be called "neo-imperialism" and get the anti-colonialists all riled up. This prevents the formulation of clear goals for military actions. Believing your own BS is never a good idea. Our adversaries can pursue their clear interests, which gives them an advantage.

Then there's the "Pottery Barn"  principle, where you go into the pottery barn, smash all the pottery, clean it up, and "make it better" after chasing off the proprietor to a comfortable retirement in Dubai. However, if you have a good reason to smash up the Barn, you can leave it that way. After 9-11, smacking the Taliban made sense but sticking around to build schools was a form of self-flagellation. Let Pakistan and India arm their Afghan proxies after leaving -- that'll be punishment enough.

The Iraq war was a mistake based on faulty intelligence or outright lies, your choice.

The Prisoner of Zenda Election II

Can Former President Trump 'Make Felonies Great Again'? || Peter Zeihan

President Trump is a man of convictions -- 36 of them.

I don't expect "the Donald" to realize this, but the way he wins is by making sure the Democrats lose. Should his poll numbers crater, he has a good reason to leave the race and pick a replacement. In the meantime, he should take the high road and pledge to pardon "the Big Guy" for those corrupt dealings with Ukraine and China. Besides, it's like the Special Prosecutor said, the current occupant of the Oval Office is too frail for jail.

The Democrats spent 2020 convincing half of the nation that our justice system is unfair and all the years since convincing the other half of the same (that being the half that supported Federal Law Enforcement). This verdict can be seen as confirmation. And who caused the cratering of faith in our system of justice? The Democrat Party.

And remember, they tried to frame Trump as a spy and a traitor in 2016 (and seventeen and eighteen) and he got 10 million more votes in 2020. So-o-o.

The Prisoner of Zenda Election

Institutional End Points

Google’s AI turns ‘perverts into heroes’: Gutfeld

A couple decades ago, I read of an Old Washington Hand who worked in Congress, the bureaucracy, and lobbyist groups who, upon his retirement, described the DC inner workings as "nerds working for sociopaths." At first, I thought this an exaggeration, but came to embrace its explanatory power.

Unfortunately, that descriptor now applies to most of our major institutions. Given time, it seems that manipulative sociopaths rise to the top, surrounded by an attached train of conspiratorial dependents who -- in Elon Musk's memorable words -- pretend to be good while doing evil. Are Sociopaths framing Donald Trump as a Russian Spy? Nerd journalists are there to help! Should we believe "the Science," as political hacks demand, even when it is no longer believable? Of course!

Artificial intelligence lacks human empathy -- in other words, it's legitimately psychopathic. Now we have "Nerds working for Sociopaths" creating an information system to malevolently manipulate the population for the benefit of psychologically unfit institutions. A few missteps along that road should be expected, but the intended destination remains the same.

Stop giving them money.

Show me a Nazi, Gemini

Don't know much about History?

The ethical situation is politically complex.

Sino-US Realestate Relations

Should We Worry About Chinese Land Purchases in the US? || Peter Zeihan

For a while I've thought the hype about China overtaking the US was overwrought because it's the over-rot in the US we should worry about. In fact, the ones who wanted to promote the rot were the ones promoting China.

There was a year during the Obama administration when DC came up with 90,000 pages of new regulations -- that's what they mean by an increase in productivity. Does this add to inflation? No. Because it all makes things better. When you factor in the qualitative improvements this quantitative improvement has brought about, there is no inflation (see car prices). Since Sputnik, the Federal government has injected itself (and our money) into the education of our children, and achievement scores have gone way down. But when you factor in that the young folks are much better people these days (ask'em), well, it's all good. And now that the Federal Government is in charge of the climate, Wall Street will only be flooded with cash.

In the 1980s I read that the USSR's rate of capital investment was growing yearly and way higher than in the USA, and I thought "Uh-oh for us." Then I read that all that capital investment was producing a negative return -- that they weren't just running on a treadmill to get ahead, but running on a treadmill and falling behind -- and I thought "Uh-oh for them." As regards Communist China, we've transitioned into the "Uh-Oh for them" stage but we are still in the "Uh-oh for US."

The Chinese leadership blamed political reform in the USSR for the collapse of the communist regime and vowed not to make that mistake. This is like blaming the cancer on the desperate remedies used to slow its spread. Now they've tossed that politically convenient "two systems" pledge (allowing limited political and economic freedom) onto the Ashheap of Chinese History. What desperate measures will Xi Jinping use to avoid that same fate?

How Long Was Rome on the Rhine?

Europe Goes Nuclear: Is America Leaving NATO? || Peter Zeihan

While hitchhiking through West Germany in 1971, a young German picked me up and wanted the US to end its occupation -- he might have meant "of Native American land" but, since the US had 200,000 troops staring down the Red Army at the Fulda gap, I figured he was talking about Germany. I told him to look at a map of the USA: everyone outside of NYC and DC would easily agree to leave -- if it was about occupation rather than preventing the next horrendous war.

I mentioned that "The Red Army" was a two-day drive -- by armored division -- from the Rhine. If the West Germans didn't want tank tracks down their backs, they'd have to replace those 200,000 American "occupiers" (and the accompanying security guarantee) with half a million Germans in jackboots. Then the rest of Europe would build out their militaries, not because they feared Russia but because they feared Germany. (I'd made some Dutch friends and they told me that they were so fond of Germany they loved having two of them.)

President Trump asked the Germans to stop starving their military while gobbling up Russian energy and they laughed at him (literally, there's video) -- that's some costly laughter. He provided Ukraine with the stingers and Javelins that stalled Putin's drive on Kyiv. If I remember correctly, the Biden administration paused "lethal" aid (for a lengthy and thorough process of review) when assuming power. That's like ringing the dinner bell for someone like Putin. I swear, Washington DC is so overrun with self-centered, self-dealing fools that Donald Trump looks good.  Ditto the Capital of Europe -- is it really Defacto Brussels or just Defacto?

At some point, the American military guarantee for Europe will end. Since the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior, it's wise to ask: How will Europeans prevent the internecine slaughters that lay ahead? And at what point will the US get dragged in?

Them Spears need Warheads

The Grater of Empires State.

 'LOSER STATE'

 Governor of New York -- The Empire State -- Democrat Kathleen Hochul argues the political targeting of Republican Donald Trump by a rogue prosecutor and Judge was a "One and Done" deal -- in effect admitting that it was political. Kevin O'Leary, Chairman of O'Leary Ventures, begs to differ. There were no victims in the case and seeing a radical leftist prosecutor jump to the defense of international bankers would be amusing but for the likely "decline and economic fallout" that follows as money flows out of the city and state to fairer lands. 

If the judge had dismissed the case instead of (rather gleefully, it seems) slapping The Donald with a $355 million fine (and 9 percent interest), the "one and done" argument may have gained some traction.  Not now. It used to be "the process is the punishment" but now the punishment is followed by more punishment. A corrupt politician can get his loser son-in-law -- let's call him Hunter -- a high-paying job by threatening a businessman with the "Trump Treatment."  It would be an equity hire. You see, the corrupt pols now have equity in your business -- otherwise known as a protection racket.

Making small fortunes in New York

Come to think of it, nothing!

Andrew Sullivan: What I got wrong about Trump 

Conclusions are often reached -- with a jump, sometimes a leap.

I've read some of Andrew's considerable punditry over the decades. Born in the UK, he was a Gay supporter of the 1980s Super Conservative, Magaret Thatcher -- a rather select demographic in the USA, but the Labor Party had screwed up so badly in the 60s and 70s (with help from a rather timid Tory establishment) that he may have had considerable company at Oxford. After his move to America, he joined The New Republic -- a not-quite far-left magazine -- and branded himself a "gay conservative" who was also a principled anti-communist (The Cold War was still on). But when you live among progressives, it's easy to think you are a conservative. Progressives have a two-step program: 1) Give Us Power! 2) Wonderful Things Happen!

Conservative Progressives also have a two-step program. 1) Give Us Power...2) Wonderful things happen? If you change the exclamation mark into a question mark, while sounding a bit less sure of yourself, you have the difference. Don't ask too many questions, though, because the answers might make you an actual, Constitutional Conservative. Defending constitutional interpretations that help your political movement doesn't count (Trump's an Insurrectionist, yay! So take their guns away!).

In 2016, I told progressive friends, who seemed too confident about Hillary Clinton's chances, to watch a Trump rally on YouTube rather than just repeat a Trump "quote" ad infinitum. Rather than making a prepared speech, he spoke extemporaneously. He would wander off-topic for a few minutes and then, almost magically, pick up where he left off. Often the "quote" was a spontaneous remark that got twisted by a Trusted Commentator with Reliable Sources (certified by The Political Commentator Cartel). It is like taking a vaguely complimentary remark Trump made about Vladimir Putin and using it to prove he's a Russian Spy (oh, wait, they did that). But as you watched Trump at his rallies, you actually felt like you knew him. He certainly was not trying to fool anyone.

I feared Trump would leave a lot of Obama's people in place and they would undermine his presidency, which is what happened (he left office with a dozen knives in his back). As a businessman, he assumed the people would do their jobs and not do him dirty. Obama put ideologues in place, and they were loyal to the movement, and their knives were out. The bureaucracy voted 97 percent for Hillary (some voted for the Green Party), so thinking Trump could become a dictator is delusional. When I watched Trump rallies, I didn't get those Mussolini vibes (who was, by the way, a socialist). 

Trump was immediately framed as a Russian spy by the Clinton Campaign and Democrats in the bureaucracy and Congress (OK, some were pretending to be Republicans). Somehow, that doesn't make Congressman Adam Schiff, who lied daily to the voters about Trump's supposed "Russian Connections," a threat to Democracy.  Indeed, the Democrats think that qualifies him for the Senate.

After these efforts fizzled, Nancy Pelosi impeached Trump because he wanted to investigate obvious Biden family corruption in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Biden family took millions from Ukraine, and are now giving billions back -- but that's no reason to question their motives.

Trump deported thousands of ruthless gang members here illegally, who no doubt promptly returned when Biden opened the border. Who cares more about actual minority Americans?

If Andrew really worries about Dictatorship he would worry about the Democrats who went after Trump supporters and locked people up without trial. The DC Dems are actively defending their Democracy by destroying America's.

Will Trump's assuming office in 2025 entail risks? Of course. But endorsing the course the Statist Democrats have set, with their fake frame jobs and divide and conquer tactics, entails much greater risks. So, on balance, I'll go with the Donald.