Monday, April 28, 2008

The most influential US political pundits

I thought if I made this list I might squeak in at number 50. But alas, that slot is occupied by Rachel Maddow, whoever she is. Apparently she got an evening radio show on Air America, whatever that is. I, at least, have a blog.

Saturday, April 19, 2008

Maybe the Basra Screw-up was intended

I speculated a week ago over at the Belmont Club that the operations that started at the end of March against the Mahdi army may not have caught the US command by so much of a surprise as they state.

Both Baghdad and Washington are information sieves. So plans for major moves in Southern Iraq where rolled out for this coming July. These would mimic operations last summer north of Baghdad. Meanwhile, Iran would supply surprises of its own in April/May.

But the Iraqi army jumped off in Basra first. They apparently achieved tactical surprise (I'll speculate "in what way" in a bit) and the offensive (which will likely carry on through the summer) started off as an Iraqi on Iraqi fright -- with the Americans apparently caught flat footed.

The problem for Iran is that their "army" in Iraq is stranded behind enemy lines. That means they cannot resupply and provide reinforcements in timely manner. So at the end of March they would have stashes of weapons and a rough plan for future action.

They also have a clandestine system of command and control. Basically it is possible to conceal who reports to who and who controls what in times of relative calm. But hit them with a sudden crisis and immediately the chain of command has to reveal itself -- or lose its forces to inaction. Clandestine system lights up.

So immediately communications flow at a high rate through the organization. The relationship and rank of the actors become apparent to many "low level" operatives who found "relative rank" very obscure before. People are captured and talk about what they've seen.

The idea is to have Iran's gun in Iraq misfire. And it may have been the (somewhat risky) plan all along.

Monday, April 14, 2008

The Sadder Party fit for the sadirists.

Seems like this weekend we're watching the disaggregation of the Democratic Party. A couple months ago I speculated it might reach the point where both Barak and Hill run to lose the nomination. The winner will lose in November because a third of the Democrats will stay home. And the loser may well win the nomination and the White House in 2012. So each will work to make the other unelectable while assuring the other gets the nomination.

Obama's behind in this race because he's so far ahead. But the man's got talent. Calling out, "Send me your bitter, your angry, your desperate -- those who fear strangers and cling to guns and religion. I shall regester them (but not their guns!) and encourage them to vote for the first time -- those huddled masses yearning for free, well, hand outs." Hey, Barry, freeloading layabouts don't want it known. So who's gonna put an "OBAMA" sticker on their jalopy?

Now here he is (via Instapundit) ragging on Hillary: "She's talking like she's Annie Oakley! Hillary Clinton's out there like she's on the duck blind every Sunday, she's packin' a six shooter! C'mon! She knows better. . . . I want to see that picture of her out there in the duck blinds."

OK, Barry, it's all true but please, stop truthin' us so much -- unless you want to lose. Hillary won't even have to cry to get the gals marching to the polls now. I mean, knocking Annie Oakley.

Despite a great start, Barak will have to work hard to lose the nomination while making it look like it was stolen. Maybe he can blame it on Rush Limbaugh.